bayesRatings

Red Wings at Senators

NHL · Monday, Jan 5 · 6:30 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final DET 5 – OTT 3
← NHL / Jan 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET3115
OTT0213
Team box
DET·OTT
21
shots
37
1 of 5
power play
1 of 6
41.3
faceoff %
58.7
13
hits
20
11
blocked shots
12
12
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
James van RiemsdykDET122
Tim StutzleOTT022
Dylan CozensOTT104
Lucas RaymondDET103
Claude GirouxOTT103
Andrew CoppDET102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET3734.919
Leevi MerilainenOTT96.667
Hunter ShepardOTT1210.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
DET +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: OTT 0 · DET 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, OTT 54% · Updated Jan 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
OTT 3.4 – 3.0 DET
Expected total
6.4
Red WingsThe matchupSenators
+118Our fair odds−118
3.0Expected goals3.4
−0.03Power rating−0.03
3.0Goals / game3.3
3.2Allowed / game3.2
28.7Shots / game28.0
51.6Faceoff %55.3
17.9Hits / game23.9
24−19Season record20−20
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · OTT chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+11846%————
OTTOttawa Senators−11854%————
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.4our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 23%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 19%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 14%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 7%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 3%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more36%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted
OTTHunter Shepard G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.94 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·OTT
Jan 3 vs PIT
last game
Jan 3 vs WPG
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
DET·OTT
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.0
goals / game
3.3
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
24−19
season record
20−20
14−9
home record
10−10
10−10
away record
10−10
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
28.7
shots / game
28.0
51.6
faceoff %
55.3
17.9
hits / game
23.9
16.6
blocked shots / game
13.7
4.2
takeaways / game
4.9
16.0
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

DET · OTT · 80 days
Detroit Red WingsOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OTT 8−2
Mar 27, 2025at DETOTT 4 − 3
Mar 10, 2025at OTTOTT 2 − 1
Jan 7, 2025at DETDET 3 − 2 OT
Dec 5, 2024at OTTOTT 2 − 1
Jan 31, 2024at DETOTT 3 − 2 OT
Dec 9, 2023at DETOTT 5 − 1
Nov 16, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 4 OT
Oct 21, 2023at OTTDET 5 − 2
Feb 28, 2023at OTTOTT 6 − 1
Feb 27, 2023at OTTOTT 6 − 2

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 3vs PIT1 − 4L
Jan 1at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs WPG2 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W

OTT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 3vs WPG4 − 2W
Jan 1vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025vs CBJ1 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025at TOR5 − 7L
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L