bayesRatings

Rangers at Panthers

NHL · Friday, Jan 2 · 7:00 PM CT · loanDepot park · neutral site · Final NYR 5 – FLA 1
← NHL / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR2125
FLA0011
Team box
NYR·FLA
20
shots
37
2 of 3
power play
1 of 6
57.4
faceoff %
42.6
20
hits
38
27
blocked shots
11
12
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mika ZibanejadNYR326
Artemi PanarinNYR215
Alexis LafreniereNYR032
Vincent TrocheckNYR021
Sam ReinhartFLA103
Brad MarchandFLA015
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR3736.973
Sergei BobrovskyFLA1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +4
NYR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 0 · NYR 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 44%, FLA 56% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
FLA by 0.5
Expected score
FLA 3.1 – 2.6 NYR
Expected total
5.7
RangersThe matchupPanthers
+128Our fair odds−128
2.6Expected goals3.1
−0.03Power rating+0.22
2.6Goals / game3.2
2.8Allowed / game3.2
25.9Shots / game29.2
53.9Faceoff %47.4
25.6Hits / game25.6
19−23Season record21−18
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · FLA chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+12844%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−12856%————
SpreadFLA by 0.5
NYRNew York Rangers+0.5our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 0.5 expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 23%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 20%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 14%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 7%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 3%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more36%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more25%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.32 GAAstarted
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·FLA
Dec 31, 2025 at WSH
last game
Dec 30, 2025 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
NYR·FLA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
2.6
goals / game
3.2
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.2
19−23
season record
21−18
5−13
home record
13−11
14−10
away record
8−7
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
25.9
shots / game
29.2
53.9
faceoff %
47.4
25.6
hits / game
25.6
15.3
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.5
takeaways / game
3.9
14.6
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

NYR · FLA · 77 days
New York RangersFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · FLA 6−4
Apr 14, 2025at FLANYR 5 − 3
Dec 30, 2024at FLAFLA 5 − 3
Oct 24, 2024at NYRFLA 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2024at FLAFLA 2 − 1post
May 30, 2024at NYRFLA 3 − 2post
May 28, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2 OTpost
May 26, 2024at FLANYR 5 − 4 OTpost
May 24, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1 OTpost
May 22, 2024at NYRFLA 3 − 0post
Mar 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3 SO

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 31, 2025at WSH3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025at NYI0 − 2L
Dec 23, 2025at WSH7 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025at STL2 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025vs VAN0 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 30, 2025vs MTL2 − 3L
Dec 29, 2025vs WSH5 − 3W
Dec 27, 2025vs TB2 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at CAR5 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs STL2 − 6L
Dec 19, 2025vs CAR4 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Dec 15, 2025at TB5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at DAL4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at COL2 − 6L