bayesRatings

Rangers at Kings

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 20 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final NYR 3 – LA 4
← NHL / Jan 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR2013
LA2204
Team box
NYR·LA
36
shots
27
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
71.4
faceoff %
28.6
24
hits
15
21
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
J.T. MillerNYR207
Kevin FialaLA111
Adrian KempeLA104
Andrei KuzmenkoLA104
Will CuylleNYR104
Taylor WardLA102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR2723.852
Anton ForsbergLA2827.964
Darcy KuemperLA86.750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 2 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 44%, LA 56% · Updated Jan 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 2.9 – 2.5 NYR
Expected total
5.4
RangersThe matchupKings
+130Our fair odds−130
2.5Expected goals2.9
−0.11Power rating−0.02
2.7Goals / game2.6
3.1Allowed / game2.8
25.7Shots / game27.8
54.4Faceoff %49.4
26.2Hits / game17.8
21−29Season record19−29
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · LA chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+13044%————
LALos Angeles Kings−13056%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers+0.4our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.4
Over5.4our total————
Under5.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 23%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 6%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more33%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more22%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.4 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.566%
Total over 5.542%
Total over 6.532%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .786 save %, 5.78 GAAstarted
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.56 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·LA
Jan 19 at ANA
last game
Jan 17 at ANA
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NYR·LA
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
2.7
goals / game
2.6
3.1
goals allowed / game
2.8
21−29
season record
19−29
5−17
home record
7−17
16−12
away record
12−12
L1
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
3−7
25.7
shots / game
27.8
54.4
faceoff %
49.4
26.2
hits / game
17.8
15.3
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.5
takeaways / game
4.6
14.9
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

NYR · LA · 95 days
New York RangersLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 4−4
Mar 25, 2025at LALA 3 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at NYRLA 5 − 1
Jan 20, 2024at LALA 2 − 1
Dec 10, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Feb 26, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Nov 22, 2022at LANYR 5 − 3
Jan 24, 2022at NYRNYR 3 − 2 SO
Jan 10, 2022at LALA 3 − 1

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 19at ANA3 − 5L
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L
Jan 5vs UTAH2 − 3L
Jan 2at FLA5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at WSH3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at CAR2 − 3L

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jan 17at ANA1 − 2L
Jan 16vs ANA2 − 3L
Jan 14vs VGK2 − 3L
Jan 12vs DAL1 − 3L
Jan 10at EDM4 − 3W
Jan 9at WPG1 − 5L
Jan 7vs SJ3 − 4L
Jan 5vs MIN4 − 2W
Jan 3vs MIN5 − 4W
Jan 1vs TB3 − 5L