bayesRatings

Kings at Ducks

NHL · Saturday, Jan 17 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final LA 1 – ANA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
LA01001
ANA10012
Team box
LA·ANA
18
shots
33
1 of 6
power play
0 of 3
45.2
faceoff %
54.8
21
hits
30
9
blocked shots
22
11
penalty minutes
17
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA3331.939
Ville HussoANA1817.944

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 1 · LA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 53%, ANA 47% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 3.4 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.3
KingsThe matchupDucks
−111Our fair odds+111
3.4Expected goals2.9
+0.01Power rating−0.27
2.6Goals / game3.3
2.9Allowed / game3.6
28.0Shots / game30.4
49.5Faceoff %46.6
17.8Hits / game20.5
19−28Season record23−24
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · ANA chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings−11153%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+11147%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings−0.4our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 14%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 17%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 25%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byANA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more36%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more25%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.39 GAAstarted
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 3.37 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·ANA
Jan 16 vs ANA
last game
Jan 16 at LA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
LA·ANA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
2.6
goals / game
3.3
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.6
19−28
season record
23−24
7−17
home record
13−9
12−11
away record
10−15
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
2−8
28.0
shots / game
30.4
49.5
faceoff %
46.6
17.8
hits / game
20.5
13.7
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.5
takeaways / game
4.9
16.7
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

LA · ANA · 92 days
Los Angeles KingsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 4−6
Jan 16at LAANA 3 − 2 SO
Dec 27, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 4 SO
Apr 10, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at LAANA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 29, 2024at ANALA 2 − 1
Oct 20, 2024at ANALA 4 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at LALA 3 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2 SO

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jan 16vs ANA2 − 3L
Jan 14vs VGK2 − 3L
Jan 12vs DAL1 − 3L
Jan 10at EDM4 − 3W
Jan 9at WPG1 − 5L
Jan 7vs SJ3 − 4L
Jan 5vs MIN4 − 2W
Jan 3vs MIN5 − 4W
Jan 1vs TB3 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025at COL2 − 5L

ANA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 31, 2025vs TB3 − 4L
Dec 29, 2025vs SJ4 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at LA1 − 6L