bayesRatings

Ducks at Hurricanes

NHL · Thursday, Jan 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final ANA 2 – CAR 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1102
CAR0325
Team box
ANA·CAR
13
shots
35
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
35.9
faceoff %
64.1
25
hits
16
20
blocked shots
8
14
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ville HussoANA3430.882
Frederik AndersenCAR1311.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 3 · ANA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 38%, CAR 62% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
CAR by 1.0
Expected score
CAR 3.9 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.7
DucksThe matchupHurricanes
+163Our fair odds−163
2.9Expected goals3.9
−0.20Power rating+0.14
3.4Goals / game3.4
3.7Allowed / game3.0
30.9Shots / game32.1
46.6Faceoff %49.9
20.0Hits / game19.4
21−22Season record26−17
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · CAR chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+16338%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−16362%————
SpreadCAR by 1.0
ANAAnaheim Ducks+1our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 1.0 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 17%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 12%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 17%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 10%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more46%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more34%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.534%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 3.12 GAAstarted
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .831 save %, 4.29 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·CAR
Jan 6 at PHI
last game
Jan 6 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
ANA·CAR
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.4
goals / game
3.4
3.7
goals allowed / game
3.0
21−22
season record
26−17
12−9
home record
14−9
9−13
away record
12−8
L7
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
4−6
30.9
shots / game
32.1
46.6
faceoff %
49.9
20.0
hits / game
19.4
14.9
blocked shots / game
11.4
4.9
takeaways / game
5.7
15.6
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

ANA · CAR · 83 days
Anaheim DucksCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CAR 5−4
Oct 16, 2025at ANACAR 4 − 1
Mar 23, 2025at ANACAR 5 − 2
Jan 12, 2025at CARANA 3 − 2 OT
Jan 11, 2024at CARCAR 6 − 3
Oct 15, 2023at ANAANA 6 − 3
Feb 25, 2023at CARANA 3 − 2
Dec 6, 2022at ANAANA 4 − 3 OT
Apr 10, 2022at CARCAR 5 − 2
Nov 18, 2021at ANACAR 2 − 1

ANA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 31, 2025vs TB3 − 4L
Dec 29, 2025vs SJ4 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at LA1 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025vs SEA1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs DAL3 − 8L
Dec 16, 2025at CBJ3 − 4L

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jan 6vs DAL6 − 3W
Jan 4at NJ3 − 1W
Jan 3vs COL3 − 5L
Jan 1vs MTL5 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at PIT1 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025vs DET5 − 2W
Dec 23, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at TB4 − 6L
Dec 19, 2025at FLA3 − 4L