bayesRatings

Ducks at Kings

NHL · Friday, Jan 16 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final ANA 3 – LA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
ANA020013
LA110002
Team box
ANA·LA
28
shots
28
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
21
hits
15
18
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2826.929
Darcy KuemperLA2826.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: LA 2 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 39%, LA 61% · Updated Jan 16

Expected margin
LA by 0.8
Expected score
LA 3.4 – 2.6 ANA
Expected total
6.0
DucksThe matchupKings
+156Our fair odds−156
2.6Expected goals3.4
−0.27Power rating+0.01
3.3Goals / game2.7
3.7Allowed / game2.8
30.5Shots / game28.0
46.6Faceoff %49.5
20.5Hits / game17.8
22−24Season record19−27
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · LA chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+15639%————
LALos Angeles Kings−15661%————
SpreadLA by 0.8
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.8our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.8 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 20%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 16%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more29%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.60 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .870 save %, 3.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·LA
Jan 13 vs DAL
last game
Jan 14 vs VGK
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
ANA·LA
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.3
goals / game
2.7
3.7
goals allowed / game
2.8
22−24
season record
19−27
13−9
home record
7−16
9−15
away record
12−11
W1
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
4−6
30.5
shots / game
28.0
46.6
faceoff %
49.5
20.5
hits / game
17.8
14.9
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.9
takeaways / game
4.5
15.7
giveaways / game
16.7

Rating Trend

ANA · LA · 91 days
Anaheim DucksLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 4 SO
Apr 10, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at LAANA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 29, 2024at ANALA 2 − 1
Oct 20, 2024at ANALA 4 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at LALA 3 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2 SO
Nov 24, 2023at ANALA 5 − 2

ANA · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 31, 2025vs TB3 − 4L
Dec 29, 2025vs SJ4 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025at LA1 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025vs SEA1 − 3L

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 14vs VGK2 − 3L
Jan 12vs DAL1 − 3L
Jan 10at EDM4 − 3W
Jan 9at WPG1 − 5L
Jan 7vs SJ3 − 4L
Jan 5vs MIN4 − 2W
Jan 3vs MIN5 − 4W
Jan 1vs TB3 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025at COL2 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025vs ANA6 − 1W