bayesRatings

Kings at Jets

NHL · Friday, Jan 9 · 7:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final LA 1 – WPG 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0101
WPG2305
Team box
LA·WPG
24
shots
20
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
56.9
faceoff %
43.1
22
hits
23
12
blocked shots
22
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA441.000
Darcy KuemperLA1611.688
Eric ComrieWPG2423.958

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +4
LA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 4 · LA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 47%, WPG 53% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 2.7 – 2.6 LA
Expected total
5.3
KingsThe matchupJets
+113Our fair odds−113
2.6Expected goals2.7
+0.04Power rating+0.01
2.7Goals / game2.9
2.8Allowed / game3.2
28.3Shots / game26.7
49.4Faceoff %51.4
17.4Hits / game22.9
18−24Season record15−27
4−6Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · WPG chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+11347%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−11353%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings+0.1our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.3
Over5.3our total————
Under5.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 21%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 25%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 10%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 5%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%
← LA wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more28%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more18%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal46%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.3 expected
1 goals: 4%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 17%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 1%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.564%
Total over 5.540%
Total over 6.530%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .895 save %, 3.12 GAAstarted
WPGEric Comrie G · last 5 starts: .870 save %, 3.60 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·WPG
Jan 7 vs SJ
last game
Jan 8 vs EDM
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
LA·WPG
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
2.7
goals / game
2.9
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.2
18−24
season record
15−27
7−14
home record
8−12
11−10
away record
7−15
L1
streak
L11
4−6
last 10
0−10
28.3
shots / game
26.7
49.4
faceoff %
51.4
17.4
hits / game
22.9
13.9
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.5
takeaways / game
4.2
16.9
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

LA · WPG · 84 days
Los Angeles KingsWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WPG 3−7
Nov 4, 2025at LALA 3 − 0
Oct 11, 2025at WPGWPG 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at LALA 4 − 1
Jan 10, 2025at WPGLA 2 − 1 OT
Nov 27, 2024at LALA 4 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at WPGWPG 4 − 3
Dec 13, 2023at LAWPG 5 − 2
Oct 17, 2023at WPGLA 5 − 1
Mar 25, 2023at LALA 4 − 1
Feb 28, 2023at WPGLA 6 − 5 SO

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 7vs SJ3 − 4L
Jan 5vs MIN4 − 2W
Jan 3vs MIN5 − 4W
Jan 1vs TB3 − 5L
Dec 29, 2025at COL2 − 5L
Dec 27, 2025vs ANA6 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Dec 22, 2025vs CBJ1 − 3L
Dec 18, 2025at TB2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L

WPG · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 8vs EDM3 − 4L
Jan 6vs VGK3 − 4L
Jan 3at OTT2 − 4L
Jan 1at TOR5 − 6L
Dec 31, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Dec 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L
Dec 19, 2025at COL2 − 3L
Dec 17, 2025at STL0 − 1L