bayesRatings

Rangers at Ducks

NHL · Monday, Jan 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final NYR 3 – ANA 5
← NHL / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1113
ANA1225
Team box
NYR·ANA
22
shots
26
2 of 4
power play
1 of 3
53.6
faceoff %
46.4
20
hits
29
14
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cutter GauthierANA204
Artemi PanarinNYR114
Vincent TrocheckNYR022
J.T. MillerNYR022
Mason McTavishANA104
Jeffrey VielANA103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer MartinNYR2521.840
Lukas DostalANA2219.864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 2 · NYR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 50%, ANA 50% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
Expected total
6.5
RangersThe matchupDucks
−100Our fair odds+100
3.3Expected goals3.2
−0.10Power rating−0.27
2.7Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.6
25.8Shots / game30.5
54.4Faceoff %46.8
26.3Hits / game20.7
21−28Season record24−24
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · ANA chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers−10050%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+10050%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.1our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 22%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byANA wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more21%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRSpencer Martin G · last 5 starts: .841 save %, 4.15 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·ANA
Jan 17 at PHI
last game
Jan 17 vs LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NYR·ANA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
2.7
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.6
21−28
season record
24−24
5−17
home record
14−9
16−11
away record
10−15
W1
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
3−7
25.8
shots / game
30.5
54.4
faceoff %
46.8
26.3
hits / game
20.7
15.3
blocked shots / game
15.1
4.5
takeaways / game
4.9
14.8
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NYR · ANA · 94 days
New York RangersAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ANA 3−6
Dec 15, 2025at NYRANA 4 − 1
Mar 28, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 4 OT
Oct 26, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Jan 21, 2024at ANANYR 5 − 2
Dec 15, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 1
Nov 23, 2022at ANAANA 3 − 2
Oct 17, 2022at NYRNYR 6 − 4
Mar 15, 2022at NYRNYR 4 − 3 OT
Jan 8, 2022at ANANYR 4 − 1

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L
Jan 5vs UTAH2 − 3L
Jan 2at FLA5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at WSH3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025at NYI0 − 2L

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Jan 17vs LA2 − 1W
Jan 16at LA3 − 2W
Jan 13vs DAL3 − 1W
Jan 10at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 8at CAR2 − 5L
Jan 6at PHI2 − 5L
Jan 5at WSH4 − 7L
Jan 2vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 31, 2025vs TB3 − 4L
Dec 29, 2025vs SJ4 − 5L