bayesRatings

Rangers at Sharks

NHL · Friday, Jan 23 · 9:00 PM CT · SAP Center at San Jose · Final NYR 1 – SJ 3
← NHL / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR1001
SJ3003
Team box
NYR·SJ
29
shots
32
0 of 2
power play
2 of 7
56.9
faceoff %
43.1
18
hits
14
11
blocked shots
18
14
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Macklin CelebriniSJ204
Will SmithSJ022
Collin GrafSJ020
Pavol RegendaSJ103
Sam CarrickNYR101
Tyler ToffoliSJ014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer MartinNYR3229.906
Alex NedeljkovicSJ2928.966

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SJ +3
NYR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SJ 3 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 51%, SJ 49% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
Expected total
6.5
RangersThe matchupSharks
−104Our fair odds+104
3.4Expected goals3.1
−0.11Power rating−0.32
2.7Goals / game3.1
3.1Allowed / game3.5
25.9Shots / game25.3
54.7Faceoff %47.9
26.1Hits / game20.7
21−30Season record25−24
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · SJ chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers−10451%————
SJSan Jose Sharks+10449%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.3our margin————
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 16%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 25%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 8%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 4%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins bySJ wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more24%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRSpencer Martin G · last 5 starts: .848 save %, 4.17 GAAstarted
SJAlex Nedeljkovic G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.64 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·SJ
Jan 20 at LA
last game
Jan 20 at TB
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
NYR·SJ
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
2.7
goals / game
3.1
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.5
21−30
season record
25−24
5−17
home record
13−12
16−13
away record
12−12
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
25.9
shots / game
25.3
54.7
faceoff %
47.9
26.1
hits / game
20.7
15.4
blocked shots / game
15.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.6
14.9
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NYR · SJ · 98 days
New York RangersSan Jose Sharks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SJ 3−6
Oct 23, 2025at NYRSJ 6 − 5 OT
Mar 29, 2025at SJNYR 6 − 1
Nov 14, 2024at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Jan 23, 2024at SJSJ 3 − 2 OT
Dec 3, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 5
Nov 19, 2022at SJNYR 2 − 1
Oct 20, 2022at NYRSJ 3 − 2 OT
Jan 13, 2022at SJNYR 3 − 0
Dec 3, 2021at NYRNYR 1 − 0

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jan 20at LA3 − 4L
Jan 19at ANA3 − 5L
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L
Jan 8vs BUF2 − 5L
Jan 5vs UTAH2 − 3L
Jan 2at FLA5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at WSH3 − 6L

SJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 20at TB1 − 4L
Jan 19at FLA4 − 1W
Jan 16at DET2 − 4L
Jan 15at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L
Jan 10vs DAL5 − 4W
Jan 7at LA4 − 3W
Jan 6vs CBJ5 − 2W
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W