bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Blue Jackets

NHL · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final CHI 0 – CBJ 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0000
CBJ2114
Team box
CHI·CBJ
21
shots
20
0 of 3
power play
0 of 1
38.5
faceoff %
61.5
14
hits
12
12
blocked shots
11
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI1916.842
Jet GreavesCBJ21211.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +4
CHI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 4 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 37%, CBJ 63% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
CBJ by 0.8
Expected score
CBJ 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
Expected total
6.5
BlackhawksThe matchupBlue Jackets
+167Our fair odds−167
2.9Expected goals3.6
−0.38Power rating−0.02
2.8Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game3.2
24.8Shots / game30.0
47.0Faceoff %50.6
17.4Hits / game19.7
22−34Season record28−27
3−7Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+16737%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−16763%————
SpreadCBJ by 0.8
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.8our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Columbus Blue Jackets by 0.8 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 18%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 22%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 12%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 15%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 4%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more41%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 3.11 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·CBJ
Feb 2 vs SJ
last game
Feb 3 at NJ
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
CHI·CBJ
−0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
2.8
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
22−34
season record
28−27
12−19
home record
14−12
10−15
away record
14−15
W1
streak
W6
3−7
last 10
9−1
24.8
shots / game
30.0
47.0
faceoff %
50.6
17.4
hits / game
19.7
12.3
blocked shots / game
14.6
5.1
takeaways / game
4.9
16.1
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

CHI · CBJ · 110 days
Chicago BlackhawksColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CBJ 7−2
Jan 30at CHICBJ 4 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at CHICBJ 6 − 3
Mar 2, 2024at CHICBJ 5 − 2
Nov 22, 2023at CBJCBJ 7 − 3
Dec 31, 2022at CBJCBJ 4 − 1
Dec 23, 2022at CHICHI 5 − 2
Feb 17, 2022at CHICBJ 7 − 4
Jan 11, 2022at CBJCHI 4 − 2

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Feb 2vs SJ6 − 3W
Jan 30vs CBJ2 − 4L
Jan 29at PIT2 − 6L
Jan 27at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 25vs FLA1 − 5L
Jan 23vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W
Jan 19vs WPG2 − 0W
Jan 17vs BOS2 − 5L
Jan 15vs CGY1 − 3L

CBJ · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Feb 3at NJ3 − 0W
Jan 31at STL5 − 3W
Jan 30at CHI4 − 2W
Jan 28vs PHI5 − 3W
Jan 24vs TB8 − 5W
Jan 22vs DAL1 − 0W
Jan 20vs OTT1 − 4L
Jan 17at PIT4 − 3W
Jan 15vs VAN4 − 1W
Jan 13vs CGY5 − 3W