bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Wild

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final CHI 3 – MIN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
CHI210003
MIN012014
Team box
CHI·MIN
32
shots
23
0 of 5
power play
0 of 1
58.5
faceoff %
41.5
10
hits
21
5
blocked shots
15
2
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI2320.870
Jesper WallstedtMIN3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MIN 0 · CHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 36%, MIN 64% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
MIN by 1.0
Expected score
MIN 3.5 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.0
BlackhawksThe matchupWild
+178Our fair odds−178
2.5Expected goals3.5
−0.36Power rating+0.07
2.7Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game2.9
24.9Shots / game28.9
47.0Faceoff %46.5
17.8Hits / game20.9
21−31Season record29−24
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair35.9%64.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+17836%————
MINMinnesota Wild−17864%————
SpreadMIN by 1.0
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Wild by 1.0 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 20%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 20%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 13%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 17%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 10%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 4%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more45%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.38 GAAstarted
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .865 save %, 4.42 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MIN
Jan 25 vs FLA
last game
Jan 24 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
CHI·MIN
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
2.7
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.9
21−31
season record
29−24
11−18
home record
14−13
10−13
away record
15−11
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
24.9
shots / game
28.9
47.0
faceoff %
46.5
17.8
hits / game
20.9
12.3
blocked shots / game
15.7
5.1
takeaways / game
4.5
16.2
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

CHI · MIN · 102 days
Chicago BlackhawksMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 9−1
Nov 26, 2025at CHIMIN 4 − 3 OT
Jan 26, 2025at CHIMIN 4 − 2
Dec 23, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Nov 29, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Nov 10, 2024at CHICHI 2 − 1 OT
Apr 7, 2024at CHIMIN 4 − 0
Feb 7, 2024at CHIMIN 2 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at MINMIN 4 − 1
Apr 10, 2023at CHIMIN 4 − 2
Mar 25, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 25vs FLA1 − 5L
Jan 23vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W
Jan 19vs WPG2 − 0W
Jan 17vs BOS2 − 5L
Jan 15vs CGY1 − 3L
Jan 12vs EDM1 − 4L
Jan 10at NSH3 − 0W
Jan 9vs WSH1 − 5L
Jan 7vs STL7 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 24vs FLA3 − 4L
Jan 22vs DET4 − 3W
Jan 20at MTL3 − 4L
Jan 19at TOR6 − 3W
Jan 17at BUF5 − 4W
Jan 15vs WPG2 − 6L
Jan 12vs NJ2 − 5L
Jan 10vs NYI3 − 4L
Jan 8at SEA3 − 2W
Jan 5at LA2 − 4L