bayesRatings

Flyers at Blue Jackets

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 6:30 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final PHI 3 – CBJ 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PHI1023
CBJ2125
Team box
PHI·CBJ
27
shots
31
0 of 5
power play
0 of 3
37.9
faceoff %
62.1
21
hits
17
18
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dan VladarPHI3026.867
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 2 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 44%, CBJ 56% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.6 – 3.1 PHI
Expected total
6.7
FlyersThe matchupBlue Jackets
+126Our fair odds−126
3.1Expected goals3.6
−0.14Power rating−0.07
3.0Goals / game3.1
3.2Allowed / game3.3
25.8Shots / game30.3
49.4Faceoff %50.2
22.1Hits / game19.8
24−27Season record24−27
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+12644%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−12656%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.4our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 5%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 8%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← PHI wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more35%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more25%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 3.69 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CBJ
Jan 26 vs NYI
last game
Jan 24 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
PHI·CBJ
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.0
goals / game
3.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.3
24−27
season record
24−27
12−14
home record
13−12
12−13
away record
11−15
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
6−4
25.8
shots / game
30.3
49.4
faceoff %
50.2
22.1
hits / game
19.8
15.0
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.1
takeaways / game
4.9
14.6
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

PHI · CBJ · 103 days
Philadelphia FlyersColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 4−6
Apr 15, 2025at PHICBJ 3 − 0
Jan 14, 2025at CBJCBJ 3 − 2 SO
Dec 21, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 4 OT
Dec 10, 2024at CBJPHI 5 − 3
Apr 6, 2024at CBJCBJ 6 − 2
Jan 4, 2024at PHICBJ 3 − 2 SO
Nov 19, 2023at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Oct 12, 2023at CBJPHI 4 − 2
Apr 11, 2023at PHIPHI 4 − 3 OT
Dec 20, 2022at PHIPHI 5 − 3

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 26vs NYI0 − 4L
Jan 23at COL7 − 3W
Jan 21at UTAH4 − 5L
Jan 19at VGK2 − 1W
Jan 17vs NYR3 − 6L
Jan 15at PIT3 − 6L
Jan 14at BUF2 − 5L
Jan 12vs TB1 − 5L
Jan 10vs TB2 − 7L
Jan 8vs TOR1 − 2L

CBJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 24vs TB8 − 5W
Jan 22vs DAL1 − 0W
Jan 20vs OTT1 − 4L
Jan 17at PIT4 − 3W
Jan 15vs VAN4 − 1W
Jan 13vs CGY5 − 3W
Jan 11at UTAH3 − 2W
Jan 10at COL0 − 4L
Jan 8at VGK3 − 5L
Jan 6at SJ2 − 5L