bayesRatings

Flyers at Penguins

NHL · Thursday, Jan 15 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final PHI 3 – PIT 6
← NHL / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PHI0123
PIT2226
Team box
PHI·PIT
34
shots
30
0 of 4
power play
3 of 4
47.2
faceoff %
52.8
22
hits
20
11
blocked shots
14
13
penalty minutes
13
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sidney CrosbyPIT113
Denver BarkeyPHI023
Evgeni MalkinPIT021
Tommy NovakPIT021
Matvei MichkovPHI104
Nick SeelerPHI103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Aleksei KolosovPHI1613.812
Samuel ErssonPHI1411.786
Stuart SkinnerPIT3431.912

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
PHI +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 5 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 45%, PIT 55% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.4 – 3.1 PHI
Expected total
6.4
FlyersThe matchupPenguins
+124Our fair odds−124
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.11Power rating−0.06
3.0Goals / game3.1
3.0Allowed / game3.0
25.9Shots / game28.8
49.4Faceoff %50.3
22.0Hits / game17.0
22−23Season record21−24
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+12445%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−12455%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 5%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 10%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 19%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 13%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%
← PHI wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more33%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more23%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHIAleksei Kolosov G · last 5 starts: .841 save %, 4.10 GAAstarted
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.61 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·PIT
Jan 14 at BUF
last game
Jan 13 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
PHI·PIT
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.0
goals / game
3.1
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.0
22−23
season record
21−24
12−12
home record
10−13
10−11
away record
11−11
L4
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
6−4
25.9
shots / game
28.8
49.4
faceoff %
50.3
22.0
hits / game
17.0
15.0
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.1
takeaways / game
4.8
14.3
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

PHI · PIT · 90 days
Philadelphia FlyersPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Dec 1, 2025at PHIPIT 5 − 1
Oct 28, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2 SO
Feb 27, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4 OT
Feb 25, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Dec 23, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 3
Feb 25, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 6
Jan 8, 2024at PHIPIT 4 − 1
Dec 4, 2023at PHIPHI 2 − 1 OT
Dec 2, 2023at PITPHI 4 − 3 SO

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 14at BUF2 − 5L
Jan 12vs TB1 − 5L
Jan 10vs TB2 − 7L
Jan 8vs TOR1 − 2L
Jan 6vs ANA5 − 2W
Jan 3at EDM5 − 2W
Dec 31, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Dec 30, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at SEA1 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at CHI3 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Jan 13vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 11at BOS0 − 1L
Jan 10vs CGY1 − 2L
Jan 8vs NJ4 − 1W
Jan 4at CBJ5 − 4W
Jan 3at DET4 − 1W
Jan 1vs DET4 − 3W
Dec 30, 2025vs CAR5 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025at CHI7 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at TOR3 − 6L