bayesRatings

Sharks at Blackhawks

NHL · Monday, Feb 2 · 7:30 PM CT · United Center · Final SJ 3 – CHI 6
← NHL / Feb 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ0213
CHI1416
Team box
SJ·CHI
27
shots
17
0 of 4
power play
1 of 4
53.6
faceoff %
46.4
36
hits
14
6
blocked shots
9
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan DonatoCHI222
Ilya MikheyevCHI133
Macklin CelebriniSJ115
Connor MurphyCHI111
Jason DickinsonCHI020
Sam RinzelCHI103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ106.600
Alex NedeljkovicSJ75.714
Spencer KnightCHI2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +4
SJ +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 4 · SJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 48%, CHI 52% · Updated Feb 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHI 3.2 – 3.2 SJ
Expected total
6.4
SharksThe matchupBlackhawks
+110Our fair odds−110
3.2Expected goals3.2
−0.31Power rating−0.36
3.1Goals / game2.7
3.5Allowed / game3.2
25.5Shots / game25.0
47.4Faceoff %47.0
20.3Hits / game17.5
27−26Season record21−34
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · CHI chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+11048%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks−11052%————
Spreadabout even
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.1our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 11%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 20%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 22%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 10%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 12%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← SJ wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more30%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 3 or more20%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .863 save %, 3.65 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.53 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·CHI
Jan 31 at CGY
last game
Jan 30 vs CBJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
SJ·CHI
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
3.1
goals / game
2.7
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.2
27−26
season record
21−34
14−12
home record
11−19
13−14
away record
10−15
L2
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
25.5
shots / game
25.0
47.4
faceoff %
47.0
20.3
hits / game
17.5
15.7
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.5
takeaways / game
5.1
15.7
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

SJ · CHI · 108 days
San Jose SharksChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 6−4
Mar 13, 2025at SJSJ 4 − 2
Oct 31, 2024at SJSJ 3 − 2
Oct 17, 2024at CHICHI 4 − 2
Mar 23, 2024at SJCHI 5 − 4 OT
Mar 17, 2024at CHICHI 5 − 2
Jan 16, 2024at CHICHI 2 − 1 SO
Feb 25, 2023at SJCHI 4 − 3 SO
Jan 1, 2023at CHISJ 5 − 2
Oct 15, 2022at SJCHI 5 − 2
Apr 23, 2022at SJSJ 4 − 1

SJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 31at CGY2 − 3L
Jan 29at EDM3 − 4L
Jan 27at VAN5 − 2W
Jan 23vs NYR3 − 1W
Jan 20at TB1 − 4L
Jan 19at FLA4 − 1W
Jan 16at DET2 − 4L
Jan 15at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L
Jan 10vs DAL5 − 4W

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Jan 30vs CBJ2 − 4L
Jan 29at PIT2 − 6L
Jan 27at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 25vs FLA1 − 5L
Jan 23vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W
Jan 19vs WPG2 − 0W
Jan 17vs BOS2 − 5L
Jan 15vs CGY1 − 3L
Jan 12vs EDM1 − 4L