bayesRatings

Sharks at Canucks

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final SJ 5 – VAN 2
← NHL / Jan 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ3115
VAN1012
Team box
SJ·VAN
33
shots
25
2 of 4
power play
1 of 4
37.1
faceoff %
62.9
17
hits
30
12
blocked shots
19
15
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Macklin CelebriniSJ134
Will SmithSJ121
John KlingbergSJ114
Sam DickinsonSJ022
Jake DeBruskVAN022
Elias PetterssonVAN020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ2523.920
Nikita TolopiloVAN2725.926
Kevin LankinenVAN63.500

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +4
SJ +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 1 · SJ 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 48%, VAN 52% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
VAN 3.3 – 3.2 SJ
Expected total
6.6
SharksThe matchupCanucks
+108Our fair odds−108
3.2Expected goals3.3
−0.31Power rating−0.39
3.1Goals / game2.7
3.5Allowed / game3.7
25.4Shots / game27.0
47.8Faceoff %48.2
20.6Hits / game21.4
26−24Season record17−35
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · VAN chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+10848%————
VANVancouver Canucks−10852%————
Spreadabout even
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.1our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 6%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 11%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 20%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 21%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 10%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 12%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← SJ wins byVAN wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more31%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more21%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .854 save %, 3.57 GAAstarted
VANNikita Tolopilo G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 4.24 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·VAN
Jan 23 vs NYR
last game
Jan 25 vs PIT
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
SJ·VAN
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
3.1
goals / game
2.7
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.7
26−24
season record
17−35
14−12
home record
5−19
12−12
away record
12−16
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
1−9
25.4
shots / game
27.0
47.8
faceoff %
48.2
20.6
hits / game
21.4
15.7
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.6
takeaways / game
4.3
15.6
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

SJ · VAN · 102 days
San Jose SharksVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at VANSJ 6 − 3
Nov 28, 2025at SJSJ 3 − 2
Apr 14, 2025at VANVAN 2 − 1 OT
Feb 6, 2025at SJVAN 2 − 1 OT
Dec 23, 2024at VANVAN 4 − 3
Nov 2, 2024at SJVAN 3 − 2
Dec 23, 2023at VANVAN 7 − 4
Nov 25, 2023at SJSJ 4 − 3
Nov 20, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 1
Nov 2, 2023at SJVAN 10 − 1

SJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 23vs NYR3 − 1W
Jan 20at TB1 − 4L
Jan 19at FLA4 − 1W
Jan 16at DET2 − 4L
Jan 15at WSH3 − 2W
Jan 11vs VGK2 − 7L
Jan 10vs DAL5 − 4W
Jan 7at LA4 − 3W
Jan 6vs CBJ5 − 2W
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L

VAN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Jan 25vs PIT2 − 3L
Jan 23vs NJ4 − 5L
Jan 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jan 19vs NYI3 − 4L
Jan 17vs EDM0 − 6L
Jan 15at CBJ1 − 4L
Jan 13at OTT1 − 2L
Jan 12at MTL3 − 6L
Jan 10at TOR0 − 5L
Jan 8at DET1 − 5L