bayesRatings

Devils at Canucks

NHL · Friday, Jan 23 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final NJ 5 – VAN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1315
VAN0314
Team box
NJ·VAN
24
shots
25
2 of 3
power play
0 of 2
52.1
faceoff %
47.9
17
hits
19
15
blocked shots
17
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ2521.840
Kevin LankinenVAN2419.792

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · NJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 53%, VAN 47% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NJ 3.0 – 2.8 VAN
Expected total
5.8
DevilsThe matchupCanucks
−111Our fair odds+111
3.0Expected goals2.8
−0.10Power rating−0.37
2.6Goals / game2.7
3.0Allowed / game3.7
29.6Shots / game27.0
50.6Faceoff %48.3
19.5Hits / game21.3
26−24Season record17−33
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · VAN chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils−11153%————
VANVancouver Canucks+11147%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils−0.3our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 7%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 13%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 11%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 19%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 24%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byVAN wins by →
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more33%
New Jersey Devils wins by 3 or more23%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .851 save %, 3.55 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 3.28 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·VAN
Jan 20 at EDM
last game
Jan 21 vs WSH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
NJ·VAN
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
2.6
goals / game
2.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.7
26−24
season record
17−33
12−11
home record
5−17
14−13
away record
12−16
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
1−9
29.6
shots / game
27.0
50.6
faceoff %
48.3
19.5
hits / game
21.3
14.6
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.7
takeaways / game
4.3
15.5
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

NJ · VAN · 98 days
New Jersey DevilsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · VAN 4−5
Dec 14, 2025at NJVAN 2 − 1
Mar 24, 2025at NJVAN 4 − 3 SO
Oct 30, 2024at VANNJ 6 − 0
Jan 6, 2024at NJVAN 6 − 4
Dec 5, 2023at VANNJ 6 − 5
Feb 6, 2023at NJNJ 5 − 4 OT
Nov 1, 2022at VANNJ 5 − 2
Mar 15, 2022at VANVAN 6 − 3
Feb 28, 2022at NJNJ 7 − 2

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 20at EDM2 − 1W
Jan 19at CGY2 − 1W
Jan 17vs CAR1 − 4L
Jan 14vs SEA3 − 2W
Jan 12at MIN5 − 2W
Jan 11at WPG3 − 4L
Jan 8at PIT1 − 4L
Jan 6at NYI0 − 9L
Jan 4vs CAR1 − 3L
Jan 3vs UTAH4 − 1W

VAN · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jan 19vs NYI3 − 4L
Jan 17vs EDM0 − 6L
Jan 15at CBJ1 − 4L
Jan 13at OTT1 − 2L
Jan 12at MTL3 − 6L
Jan 10at TOR0 − 5L
Jan 8at DET1 − 5L
Jan 6at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 3vs BOS2 − 3L