bayesRatings

Devils at Jets

NHL · Sunday, Jan 11 · 1:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final NJ 3 – WPG 4
← NHL / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1203
WPG1214
Team box
NJ·WPG
27
shots
22
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
51.9
faceoff %
48.1
17
hits
15
11
blocked shots
13
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cody GlassNJ202
Jack HughesNJ024
Luke HughesNJ022
Cole PerfettiWPG022
Josh MorrisseyWPG021
Gabriel VilardiWPG104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake AllenNJ2218.818
Connor HellebuyckWPG2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 1 · NJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 44%, WPG 56% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 2.9 – 2.5 NJ
Expected total
5.4
DevilsThe matchupJets
+125Our fair odds−125
2.5Expected goals2.9
−0.06Power rating+0.01
2.6Goals / game2.9
3.1Allowed / game3.1
30.0Shots / game26.5
50.2Faceoff %51.2
19.9Hits / game22.9
22−22Season record16−27
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · WPG chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+12544%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−12556%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils+0.4our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.4
Over5.4our total————
Under5.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 1%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 4%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 8%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 23%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 22%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 13%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 7%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more34%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more22%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

5.4 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 4%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 11%5 goals: 24%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 16%8 goals: 5%9 goals: 6%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.566%
Total over 5.542%
Total over 6.532%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 3.05 GAAstarted
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.25 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·WPG
Jan 8 at PIT
last game
Jan 9 vs LA
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
NJ·WPG
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
2.6
goals / game
2.9
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
22−22
season record
16−27
11−10
home record
9−12
11−12
away record
7−15
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
1−9
30.0
shots / game
26.5
50.2
faceoff %
51.2
19.9
hits / game
22.9
14.8
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.8
takeaways / game
4.1
15.5
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

NJ · WPG · 86 days
New Jersey DevilsWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WPG 6−2
Mar 28, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 0
Mar 7, 2025at NJWPG 6 − 1
Mar 21, 2024at NJNJ 4 − 1
Nov 14, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 3
Apr 2, 2023at WPGWPG 6 − 1
Feb 19, 2023at NJNJ 4 − 2
Mar 10, 2022at NJWPG 2 − 1
Dec 3, 2021at WPGWPG 8 − 4

NJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jan 8at PIT1 − 4L
Jan 6at NYI0 − 9L
Jan 4vs CAR1 − 3L
Jan 3vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025at CBJ3 − 2W
Dec 30, 2025at TOR0 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 1W

WPG · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 9vs LA5 − 1W
Jan 8vs EDM3 − 4L
Jan 6vs VGK3 − 4L
Jan 3at OTT2 − 4L
Jan 1at TOR5 − 6L
Dec 31, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Dec 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L
Dec 19, 2025at COL2 − 3L