bayesRatings

Canucks at Red Wings

NHL · Thursday, Jan 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final VAN 1 – DET 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN0101
DET1225
Team box
VAN·DET
24
shots
25
1 of 2
power play
1 of 3
54.7
faceoff %
45.3
24
hits
13
14
blocked shots
27
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN2420.833
John GibsonDET2423.958

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
VAN +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 4 · VAN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 42%, DET 58% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.4 – 2.9 VAN
Expected total
6.3
CanucksThe matchupRed Wings
+137Our fair odds−137
2.9Expected goals3.4
−0.19Power rating−0.02
2.9Goals / game3.1
3.5Allowed / game3.2
27.0Shots / game28.6
48.6Faceoff %51.4
22.0Hits / game17.8
16−26Season record25−19
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · DET chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13742%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−13758%————
Spreadabout even
VANVancouver Canucks+0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 18%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 24%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 13%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 7%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 3%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more34%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more24%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.07 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.63 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·DET
Jan 6 at BUF
last game
Jan 5 at OTT
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
VAN·DET
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
2.9
goals / game
3.1
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.2
16−26
season record
25−19
4−15
home record
14−9
12−11
away record
11−10
L4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
27.0
shots / game
28.6
48.6
faceoff %
51.4
22.0
hits / game
17.8
14.1
blocked shots / game
16.5
4.2
takeaways / game
4.2
15.0
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

VAN · DET · 83 days
Vancouver CanucksDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 7−2
Dec 8, 2025at VANDET 4 − 0
Feb 2, 2025at VANDET 3 − 2 OT
Dec 1, 2024at DETVAN 5 − 4 OT
Feb 15, 2024at VANVAN 4 − 1
Feb 10, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Feb 13, 2023at VANDET 6 − 1
Feb 11, 2023at DETDET 5 − 2
Mar 17, 2022at VANDET 1 − 0
Oct 16, 2021at DETDET 3 − 1

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 6at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 3vs BOS2 − 3L
Jan 2vs SEA3 − 4L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025vs SJ3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at BOS5 − 4W
Dec 19, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at NYR3 − 0W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 5at OTT5 − 3W
Jan 3vs PIT1 − 4L
Jan 1at PIT3 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025vs WPG2 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
Dec 23, 2025vs DAL4 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH5 − 2W
Dec 17, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L