bayesRatings

Canucks at Kraken

NHL · Monday, Dec 29 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final VAN 3 – SEA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
VAN110013
SEA200002
Team box
VAN·SEA
24
shots
39
0 of 2
power play
1 of 6
54.7
faceoff %
45.3
22
hits
21
15
blocked shots
17
17
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3937.949
Joey DaccordSEA2422.917

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: SEA 1 · VAN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 47%, SEA 53% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 2.9 – 2.9 VAN
Expected total
5.8
CanucksThe matchupKraken
+112Our fair odds−112
2.9Expected goals2.9
−0.13Power rating−0.19
2.9Goals / game2.6
3.5Allowed / game3.0
26.5Shots / game25.7
48.8Faceoff %46.8
21.6Hits / game18.9
15−22Season record16−20
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+11247%————
SEASeattle Kraken−11253%————
Spreadabout even
VANVancouver CanucksPKour margin————
SEASeattle KrakenPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 11%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 10%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 18%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 26%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 5%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← VAN wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more27%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more17%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 3.17 GAAstarted
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .940 save %, 2.22 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·SEA
Dec 27, 2025 vs SJ
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
VAN·SEA
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
2.9
goals / game
2.6
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.0
15−22
season record
16−20
4−12
home record
8−10
11−10
away record
8−10
L2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
5−5
26.5
shots / game
25.7
48.8
faceoff %
46.8
21.6
hits / game
18.9
14.5
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.6
14.8
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

VAN · SEA · 73 days
Vancouver CanucksSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Apr 2, 2025at VANSEA 5 − 0
Mar 1, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Jan 2, 2025at SEAVAN 4 − 3 SO
Dec 28, 2024at VANSEA 5 − 4 OT
Feb 22, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Nov 24, 2023at SEAVAN 5 − 1
Nov 18, 2023at VANSEA 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2023at VANSEA 5 − 2
Jan 25, 2023at SEASEA 6 − 1
Dec 22, 2022at VANVAN 6 − 5 SO

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025vs SJ3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at BOS5 − 4W
Dec 19, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Dec 14, 2025at NJ2 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI4 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025at LA3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at ANA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at SJ4 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025at CGY2 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs COL3 − 5L
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 12, 2025at UTAH3 − 5L
Dec 10, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Dec 8, 2025vs MIN1 − 4L