bayesRatings

Kraken at Canucks

NHL · Friday, Jan 2 · 9:30 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final SEA 4 – VAN 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
SEA120014
VAN021003
Team box
SEA·VAN
28
shots
24
1 of 2
power play
2 of 3
44.4
faceoff %
55.6
13
hits
26
20
blocked shots
6
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joey DaccordSEA2421.875
Thatcher DemkoVAN2825.893

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: VAN 0 · SEA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 46%, VAN 54% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
VAN 2.9 – 2.9 SEA
Expected total
5.8
KrakenThe matchupCanucks
+117Our fair odds−117
2.9Expected goals2.9
−0.16Power rating−0.16
2.6Goals / game2.9
2.9Allowed / game3.5
25.9Shots / game26.6
46.8Faceoff %48.8
19.0Hits / game21.8
17−21Season record16−23
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · VAN chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+11746%————
VANVancouver Canucks−11754%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Kraken+0.1our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 5%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 11%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 19%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 25%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 10%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 11%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 5%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 2%
← SEA wins byVAN wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more29%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more19%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .939 save %, 2.19 GAAstarted
VANThatcher Demko G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·VAN
Jan 1 vs NSH
last game
Dec 30, 2025 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
SEA·VAN
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
2.6
goals / game
2.9
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.5
17−21
season record
16−23
9−11
home record
4−13
8−10
away record
12−10
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.9
shots / game
26.6
46.8
faceoff %
48.8
19.0
hits / game
21.8
16.4
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.6
takeaways / game
4.2
15.5
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

SEA · VAN · 77 days
Seattle KrakenVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 3−7
Dec 29, 2025at SEAVAN 3 − 2 SO
Apr 2, 2025at VANSEA 5 − 0
Mar 1, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Jan 2, 2025at SEAVAN 4 − 3 SO
Dec 28, 2024at VANSEA 5 − 4 OT
Feb 22, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2
Nov 24, 2023at SEAVAN 5 − 1
Nov 18, 2023at VANSEA 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2023at VANSEA 5 − 2
Jan 25, 2023at SEASEA 6 − 1

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 1vs NSH4 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI4 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025at LA3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at ANA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at SJ4 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025at CGY2 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs COL3 − 5L
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 12, 2025at UTAH3 − 5L

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI3 − 6L
Dec 29, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Dec 27, 2025vs SJ3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at BOS5 − 4W
Dec 19, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Dec 14, 2025at NJ2 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L