bayesRatings

Predators at Kraken

NHL · Thursday, Jan 1 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final NSH 1 – SEA 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH0101
SEA3014
Team box
NSH·SEA
25
shots
23
1 of 2
power play
0 of 1
53.3
faceoff %
46.7
23
hits
20
16
blocked shots
21
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Matty BeniersSEA202
Jared McCannSEA104
Roman JosiNSH103
Jamie OleksiakSEA101
Ryan O'ReillyNSH013
Ryan LindgrenSEA012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Juuse SarosNSH2219.864
Philipp GrubauerSEA2524.960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 3 · NSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 3.0 – 2.8 NSH
Expected total
5.7
PredatorsThe matchupKraken
+121Our fair odds−121
2.8Expected goals3.0
−0.18Power rating−0.16
2.9Goals / game2.6
3.3Allowed / game3.0
27.9Shots / game26.0
52.1Faceoff %46.8
19.3Hits / game19.0
18−21Season record16−21
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+12145%————
SEASeattle Kraken−12155%————
Spreadabout even
NSHNashville Predators+0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 5%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 20%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 24%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 12%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 6%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← NSH wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more30%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more20%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
SEAPhilipp Grubauer G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 2.23 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·SEA
Dec 31, 2025 at VGK
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs VAN
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
NSH·SEA
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
2.9
goals / game
2.6
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.0
18−21
season record
16−21
10−11
home record
8−11
8−10
away record
8−10
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
27.9
shots / game
26.0
52.1
faceoff %
46.8
19.3
hits / game
19.0
11.8
blocked shots / game
16.2
5.1
takeaways / game
4.6
15.0
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

NSH · SEA · 76 days
Nashville PredatorsSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Mar 6, 2025at NSHNSH 5 − 3
Nov 20, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 0
Oct 15, 2024at NSHSEA 7 − 3
Mar 16, 2024at SEANSH 4 − 1
Nov 2, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 2
Oct 12, 2023at NSHNSH 3 − 0
Mar 25, 2023at NSHSEA 7 − 2
Mar 23, 2023at NSHNSH 2 − 1 SO
Nov 8, 2022at SEASEA 5 − 1
Mar 2, 2022at SEASEA 4 − 3

NSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Dec 29, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 27, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 23, 2025at MIN3 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYR2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at COL2 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025vs STL7 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI4 − 1W
Dec 23, 2025at LA3 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at ANA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at SJ4 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025at CGY2 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs COL3 − 5L
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 12, 2025at UTAH3 − 5L
Dec 10, 2025vs LA3 − 2W