bayesRatings

Islanders at Canucks

NHL · Monday, Jan 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final NYI 4 – VAN 3
← NHL / Jan 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1214
VAN2013
Team box
NYI·VAN
33
shots
32
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
44.9
faceoff %
55.1
17
hits
20
17
blocked shots
7
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Anthony DuclairNYI205
Tony DeAngeloNYI113
Matthew SchaeferNYI022
Mathew BarzalNYI020
Evander KaneVAN105
Ryan PulockNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI3229.906
Kevin LankinenVAN3329.879

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 1 · NYI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 53%, VAN 47% · Updated Jan 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.2 – 2.8 VAN
Expected total
5.9
IslandersThe matchupCanucks
−112Our fair odds+112
3.2Expected goals2.8
−0.01Power rating−0.29
2.9Goals / game2.6
2.8Allowed / game3.7
27.7Shots / game26.9
51.3Faceoff %48.4
18.5Hits / game21.5
26−22Season record16−32
5−5Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · VAN chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders−11253%————
VANVancouver Canucks+11247%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders−0.4our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 14%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 18%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 25%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byVAN wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more36%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more24%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .934 save %, 2.25 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 3.20 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·VAN
Jan 17 at CGY
last game
Jan 17 vs EDM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NYI·VAN
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
2.9
goals / game
2.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.7
26−22
season record
16−32
14−10
home record
4−16
12−12
away record
12−16
L1
streak
L10
5−5
last 10
0−10
27.7
shots / game
26.9
51.3
faceoff %
48.4
18.5
hits / game
21.5
15.2
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.5
takeaways / game
4.3
15.0
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

NYI · VAN · 94 days
New York IslandersVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · VAN 6−3
Dec 19, 2025at NYIVAN 4 − 1
Mar 26, 2025at NYIVAN 5 − 2
Nov 14, 2024at VANNYI 5 − 2
Jan 9, 2024at NYIVAN 5 − 2
Nov 15, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 3 OT
Feb 9, 2023at NYIVAN 6 − 5
Jan 3, 2023at VANNYI 6 − 2
Mar 3, 2022at NYIVAN 4 − 3
Feb 9, 2022at VANNYI 6 − 3

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 17at CGY2 − 4L
Jan 15at EDM1 − 0W
Jan 13at WPG4 − 5L
Jan 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 8at NSH1 − 2L
Jan 6vs NJ9 − 0W
Jan 3vs TOR4 − 3W
Jan 1vs UTAH2 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at CBJ2 − 4L

VAN · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 17vs EDM0 − 6L
Jan 15at CBJ1 − 4L
Jan 13at OTT1 − 2L
Jan 12at MTL3 − 6L
Jan 10at TOR0 − 5L
Jan 8at DET1 − 5L
Jan 6at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 3vs BOS2 − 3L
Jan 2vs SEA3 − 4L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI3 − 6L