bayesRatings

Islanders at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Jan 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final NYI 1 – NSH 2
← NHL / Jan 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
NYI010001
NSH010012
Team box
NYI·NSH
31
shots
27
0 of 2
power play
0 of 1
47.2
faceoff %
52.8
20
hits
19
23
blocked shots
16
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Simon HolmstromNYI104
Ryan O'ReillyNSH101
Cole SmithNSH012
Mathew BarzalNYI012
Scott MayfieldNYI010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
David RittichNYI2726.963
Juuse SarosNSH3130.968

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NSH 0 · NYI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 49%, NSH 51% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.0 – 2.8 NSH
Expected total
5.8
IslandersThe matchupPredators
+104Our fair odds−104
3.0Expected goals2.8
−0.04Power rating−0.15
3.0Goals / game2.9
2.8Allowed / game3.4
27.9Shots / game28.0
51.0Faceoff %52.0
18.6Hits / game19.5
24−19Season record19−23
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · NSH chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+10449%————
NSHNashville Predators−10451%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders−0.2our margin————
NSHNashville Predators+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 13%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 17%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 27%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byNSH wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more33%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more22%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .887 save %, 2.65 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.65 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·NSH
Jan 6 vs NJ
last game
Jan 6 at EDM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
NYI·NSH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.0
goals / game
2.9
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.4
24−19
season record
19−23
14−10
home record
10−11
10−9
away record
9−12
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
27.9
shots / game
28.0
51.0
faceoff %
52.0
18.6
hits / game
19.5
15.2
blocked shots / game
12.0
4.5
takeaways / game
5.2
15.0
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

NYI · NSH · 83 days
New York IslandersNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NSH 6−2
Apr 8, 2025at NSHNSH 7 − 6 OT
Mar 1, 2025at NYINYI 7 − 4
Apr 6, 2024at NYINYI 2 − 0
Jan 13, 2024at NSHNSH 3 − 1
Dec 2, 2022at NYINSH 4 − 1
Nov 17, 2022at NSHNSH 5 − 4
Dec 9, 2021at NYINSH 4 − 3
Oct 30, 2021at NSHNSH 3 − 2 SO

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 6vs NJ9 − 0W
Jan 3vs TOR4 − 3W
Jan 1vs UTAH2 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at CBJ2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NYR2 − 0W
Dec 23, 2025vs NJ2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 6at EDM2 − 6L
Jan 3at CGY4 − 3W
Jan 1at SEA1 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Dec 29, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 27, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 23, 2025at MIN3 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYR2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L