bayesRatings

Predators at Flames

NHL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Saddledome · Final NSH 4 – CGY 3
← NHL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH2114
CGY2013
Team box
NSH·CGY
36
shots
23
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
57.5
faceoff %
42.5
23
hits
26
15
blocked shots
12
28
penalty minutes
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Michael BuntingNSH132
Erik HaulaNSH206
Steven StamkosNSH022
Matt CoronatoCGY020
Rasmus AnderssonCGY104
Blake ColemanCGY102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Juuse SarosNSH2320.870
Dustin WolfCGY3632.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CGY +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CGY 1 · NSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 44%, CGY 56% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CGY 2.9 – 2.6 NSH
Expected total
5.6
PredatorsThe matchupFlames
+130Our fair odds−130
2.6Expected goals2.9
−0.18Power rating−0.08
2.9Goals / game2.7
3.3Allowed / game2.9
27.9Shots / game29.3
52.1Faceoff %50.0
19.4Hits / game21.4
18−22Season record18−22
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · CGY chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+13044%————
CGYCalgary Flames−13056%————
Spreadabout even
NSHNashville Predators+0.3our margin————
CGYCalgary Flames−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 9%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 20%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 25%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 11%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 12%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 6%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: 2%Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%
← NSH wins byCGY wins by →
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more31%
Calgary Flames wins by 3 or more21%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
CGYDustin Wolf G · last 5 starts: .931 save %, 2.19 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·CGY
Jan 1 at SEA
last game
Dec 31, 2025 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
NSH·CGY
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
2.9
goals / game
2.7
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.9
18−22
season record
18−22
10−11
home record
12−7
8−11
away record
6−15
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
27.9
shots / game
29.3
52.1
faceoff %
50.0
19.4
hits / game
21.4
11.9
blocked shots / game
14.9
5.1
takeaways / game
4.5
15.2
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

NSH · CGY · 78 days
Nashville PredatorsCalgary Flames
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CGY 4−6
Dec 2, 2025at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Nov 1, 2025at NSHNSH 4 − 2
Jan 4, 2025at CGYNSH 4 − 1
Dec 10, 2024at NSHCGY 4 − 3
Nov 15, 2024at CGYCGY 2 − 0
Jan 4, 2024at NSHCGY 6 − 3
Nov 22, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 2
Nov 7, 2023at CGYCGY 4 − 2
Apr 10, 2023at CGYNSH 3 − 2 SO
Jan 16, 2023at NSHNSH 2 − 1

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 1at SEA1 − 4L
Dec 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Dec 29, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 27, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 23, 2025at MIN3 − 2W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYR2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Dec 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at COL2 − 4L

CGY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 31, 2025vs PHI5 − 1W
Dec 29, 2025vs BOS2 − 1W
Dec 27, 2025vs EDM3 − 2W
Dec 23, 2025at EDM1 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025vs VGK6 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025vs SEA4 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SJ3 − 6L
Dec 13, 2025at LA2 − 1W
Dec 10, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Dec 8, 2025vs BUF7 − 4W