bayesRatings

Islanders at Jets

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 7:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final NYI 4 – WPG 5
← NHL / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI0314
WPG1405
Team box
NYI·WPG
27
shots
22
0 of 1
power play
1 of 3
55.6
faceoff %
44.4
13
hits
18
12
blocked shots
9
6
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Emil HeinemanNYI116
Adam LowryWPG112
Kyle ConnorWPG112
Mark ScheifeleWPG022
Josh MorrisseyWPG104
Jonathan ToewsWPG103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2217.773
Connor HellebuyckWPG2723.852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 3 · NYI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 45%, WPG 55% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WPG 3.0 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
5.6
IslandersThe matchupJets
+122Our fair odds−122
2.6Expected goals3.0
−0.01Power rating+0.02
3.0Goals / game3.0
2.8Allowed / game3.1
27.9Shots / game26.4
51.0Faceoff %51.2
18.5Hits / game22.8
25−20Season record17−27
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · WPG chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+12245%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−12255%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders+0.4our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 23%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 21%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 13%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 7%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more34%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more23%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .933 save %, 2.20 GAAstarted
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 3.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·WPG
Jan 10 at MIN
last game
Jan 11 vs NJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
NYI·WPG
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.0
goals / game
3.0
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.1
25−20
season record
17−27
14−10
home record
10−12
11−10
away record
7−15
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
2−8
27.9
shots / game
26.4
51.0
faceoff %
51.2
18.5
hits / game
22.8
15.2
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.4
takeaways / game
4.2
15.0
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

NYI · WPG · 88 days
New York IslandersWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WPG 3−6
Oct 13, 2025at NYIWPG 5 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2
Feb 7, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 3
Mar 23, 2024at NYINYI 6 − 3
Jan 16, 2024at WPGWPG 4 − 2
Feb 26, 2023at WPGNYI 4 − 0
Feb 22, 2023at NYINYI 2 − 1
Mar 11, 2022at NYINYI 5 − 2
Nov 6, 2021at WPGNYI 2 − 0

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 8at NSH1 − 2L
Jan 6vs NJ9 − 0W
Jan 3vs TOR4 − 3W
Jan 1vs UTAH2 − 7L
Dec 30, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Dec 28, 2025at CBJ2 − 4L
Dec 27, 2025vs NYR2 − 0W
Dec 23, 2025vs NJ2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L

WPG · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Jan 11vs NJ4 − 3W
Jan 9vs LA5 − 1W
Jan 8vs EDM3 − 4L
Jan 6vs VGK3 − 4L
Jan 3at OTT2 − 4L
Jan 1at TOR5 − 6L
Dec 31, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Dec 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Dec 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L