bayesRatings

Capitals at Canucks

NHL · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final WSH 3 – VAN 4
← NHL / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH2013
VAN2204
Team box
WSH·VAN
32
shots
25
2 of 3
power play
0 of 3
61.1
faceoff %
38.9
18
hits
17
14
blocked shots
13
10
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Dylan StromeWSH213
Brock BoeserVAN114
Justin SourdifWSH113
John CarlsonWSH024
David KampfVAN021
Jake DeBruskVAN020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH2521.840
Kevin LankinenVAN3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 2 · WSH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 57%, VAN 43% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
WSH by 0.8
Expected score
WSH 3.4 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
6.1
CapitalsThe matchupCanucks
−131Our fair odds+131
3.4Expected goals2.6
+0.07Power rating−0.37
3.2Goals / game2.6
3.0Allowed / game3.7
29.1Shots / game27.0
49.2Faceoff %48.5
19.4Hits / game21.4
24−26Season record16−33
3−7Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · VAN chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−13157%————
VANVancouver Canucks+13143%————
SpreadWSH by 0.8
WSHWashington Capitals−0.8our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.8 expected
Washington Capitals by 7 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 4%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 16%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 23%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byVAN wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more42%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more30%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 3.52 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·VAN
Jan 19 at COL
last game
Jan 19 vs NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
WSH·VAN
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
3.2
goals / game
2.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.7
24−26
season record
16−33
14−13
home record
4−17
10−13
away record
12−16
L3
streak
L11
3−7
last 10
0−10
29.1
shots / game
27.0
49.2
faceoff %
48.5
19.4
hits / game
21.4
15.4
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.4
takeaways / game
4.3
15.4
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

WSH · VAN · 96 days
Washington CapitalsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · VAN 4−5
Oct 19, 2025at WSHVAN 4 − 3
Jan 25, 2025at VANVAN 2 − 1
Jan 8, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 1 OT
Mar 16, 2024at VANWSH 2 − 1
Feb 11, 2024at WSHVAN 3 − 2 OT
Nov 29, 2022at VANWSH 5 − 1
Oct 17, 2022at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Mar 11, 2022at VANWSH 4 − 3 OT
Jan 16, 2022at WSHVAN 4 − 2

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jan 19at COL2 − 5L
Jan 17vs FLA2 − 5L
Jan 15vs SJ2 − 3L
Jan 13vs MTL3 − 2W
Jan 11at NSH2 − 3L
Jan 9at CHI5 − 1W
Jan 7vs DAL1 − 4L
Jan 5vs ANA7 − 4W
Jan 3vs CHI2 − 3L
Jan 1at OTT3 − 4L

VAN · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 19vs NYI3 − 4L
Jan 17vs EDM0 − 6L
Jan 15at CBJ1 − 4L
Jan 13at OTT1 − 2L
Jan 12at MTL3 − 6L
Jan 10at TOR0 − 5L
Jan 8at DET1 − 5L
Jan 6at BUF3 − 5L
Jan 3vs BOS2 − 3L
Jan 2vs SEA3 − 4L