bayesRatings

Mammoth at Blue Jackets

NHL · Saturday, Mar 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final UTAH 5 – CBJ 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
UTAH11215
CBJ11204
Team box
UTAH·CBJ
25
shots
31
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
47.4
faceoff %
52.6
13
hits
25
25
blocked shots
11
16
penalty minutes
34
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH3127.871
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ2520.800

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CBJ 0 · UTAH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 47%, CBJ 53% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.1 – 3.1 UTAH
Expected total
6.2
MammothThe matchupBlue Jackets
+112Our fair odds−112
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.06Power rating+0.01
3.2Goals / game3.2
2.7Allowed / game3.2
27.7Shots / game29.9
49.6Faceoff %50.5
18.7Hits / game19.6
33−29Season record32−29
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+11247%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11253%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah MammothPKour margin————
CBJColumbus Blue JacketsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 18%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 25%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more28%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more18%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,067 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,067 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.62 GAAstarted
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·CBJ
Mar 5 at PHI
last game
Mar 5 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
UTAH·CBJ
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.2
goals / game
3.2
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.2
33−29
season record
32−29
18−12
home record
17−13
15−17
away record
15−16
W2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
27.7
shots / game
29.9
49.6
faceoff %
50.5
18.7
hits / game
19.6
13.9
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.1
takeaways / game
4.9
16.2
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

UTAH · CBJ · 122 days
Utah MammothColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · CBJ 2−1
Jan 11at UTAHCBJ 3 − 2 OT
Feb 6, 2025at CBJUTAH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 31, 2025at UTAHCBJ 3 − 2 OT

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 5at PHI3 − 0W
Mar 3at WSH3 − 2W
Mar 1vs CHI0 − 4L
Feb 27vs MIN5 − 2W
Feb 25vs COL2 − 4L
Feb 4vs DET4 − 1W
Feb 2vs VAN6 − 2W
Jan 31vs DAL2 − 3L
Jan 29at CAR4 − 5L
Jan 27at FLA4 − 3W

CBJ · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Mar 5vs FLA4 − 2W
Mar 3vs NSH3 − 2W
Mar 2at NYR5 − 4W
Feb 28vs NYI3 − 4L
Feb 26at BOS2 − 4L
Feb 4vs CHI4 − 0W
Feb 3at NJ3 − 0W
Jan 31at STL5 − 3W
Jan 30at CHI4 − 2W
Jan 28vs PHI5 − 3W