bayesRatings

Stars at Mammoth

NHL · Saturday, Jan 31 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final DAL 3 – UTAH 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL3003
UTAH1012
Team box
DAL·UTAH
32
shots
14
2 of 4
power play
0 of 2
56.9
faceoff %
43.1
25
hits
18
12
blocked shots
8
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Kailer YamamotoUTAH202
JJ PeterkaUTAH021
Jamie BennDAL020
Wyatt JohnstonDAL106
Thomas HarleyDAL103
Matt DucheneDAL102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL1412.857
Karel VejmelkaUTAH3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: UTAH 0 · DAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 50%, UTAH 50% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 2.9 – 2.9 DAL
Expected total
5.8
StarsThe matchupMammoth
+101Our fair odds−101
2.9Expected goals2.9
+0.20Power rating+0.06
3.4Goals / game3.2
2.8Allowed / game2.8
25.4Shots / game28.2
52.3Faceoff %49.1
18.2Hits / game18.9
31−23Season record28−26
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars+10150%————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−10150%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas StarsPKour margin————
UTAHUtah MammothPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 5%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 10%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 22%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 22%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%
← DAL wins byUTAH wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more28%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more18%
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.23 GAAstarted
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .887 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·UTAH
Jan 29 at VGK
last game
Jan 29 at CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
DAL·UTAH
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.4
goals / game
3.2
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.8
31−23
season record
28−26
14−10
home record
15−9
17−13
away record
13−17
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
25.4
shots / game
28.2
52.3
faceoff %
49.1
18.2
hits / game
18.9
15.4
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.7
takeaways / game
4.1
14.8
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

DAL · UTAH · 106 days
Dallas StarsUtah Mammoth
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 6 meetings · UTAH 2−4
Jan 15at UTAHUTAH 2 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at DALDAL 4 − 3
Apr 12, 2025at DALUTAH 5 − 3
Jan 4, 2025at DALDAL 3 − 2 OT
Dec 23, 2024at UTAHDAL 3 − 2
Dec 2, 2024at UTAHDAL 2 − 1

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jan 29at VGK5 − 4W
Jan 27at STL4 − 3W
Jan 23vs STL3 − 2W
Jan 22at CBJ0 − 1L
Jan 20vs BOS6 − 2W
Jan 18vs TB1 − 4L
Jan 15at UTAH1 − 2L
Jan 13at ANA1 − 3L
Jan 12at LA3 − 1W
Jan 10at SJ4 − 5L

UTAH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 29at CAR4 − 5L
Jan 27at FLA4 − 3W
Jan 26at TB0 − 2L
Jan 24at NSH5 − 2W
Jan 21vs PHI5 − 4W
Jan 17vs SEA6 − 3W
Jan 15vs DAL2 − 1W
Jan 13vs TOR6 − 1W
Jan 11vs CBJ2 − 3L
Jan 9vs STL4 − 2W