bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Mammoth

NHL · Sunday, Mar 1 · 3:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final CHI 4 – UTAH 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI1214
UTAH0000
Team box
CHI·UTAH
28
shots
22
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
33.9
faceoff %
66.1
10
hits
21
13
blocked shots
10
6
penalty minutes
18
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arvid SoderblomCHI22221.000
Karel VejmelkaUTAH2824.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +4
CHI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: UTAH 0 · CHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 34%, UTAH 66% · Updated Mar 1

Expected margin
UTAH by 1.2
Expected score
UTAH 3.6 – 2.4 CHI
Expected total
6.0
BlackhawksThe matchupMammoth
+197Our fair odds−197
2.4Expected goals3.6
−0.43Power rating+0.09
2.7Goals / game3.2
3.3Allowed / game2.8
24.6Shots / game28.0
46.9Faceoff %49.4
17.4Hits / game18.7
22−37Season record31−28
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+19734%————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−19766%————
SpreadUTAH by 1.2
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.2our margin————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Utah Mammoth by 1.2 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 6%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 20%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 19%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 13%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 18%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: 1%Utah Mammoth by 7 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byUTAH wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more48%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 3.33 GAAstarted
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·UTAH
Feb 28 at COL
last game
Feb 27 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
CHI·UTAH
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
2.7
goals / game
3.2
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.8
22−37
season record
31−28
12−19
home record
18−11
10−18
away record
13−17
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
24.6
shots / game
28.0
46.9
faceoff %
49.4
17.4
hits / game
18.7
12.2
blocked shots / game
13.9
5.0
takeaways / game
4.1
16.1
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

CHI · UTAH · 116 days
Chicago BlackhawksUtah Mammoth
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · UTAH 3−2
Oct 13, 2025at CHICHI 3 − 1
Mar 30, 2025at CHIUTAH 5 − 2
Mar 7, 2025at CHICHI 4 − 3 OT
Feb 25, 2025at UTAHUTAH 2 − 1
Oct 8, 2024at UTAHUTAH 5 − 2

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Feb 28at COL1 − 3L
Feb 26at NSH2 − 4L
Feb 4at CBJ0 − 4L
Feb 2vs SJ6 − 3W
Jan 30vs CBJ2 − 4L
Jan 29at PIT2 − 6L
Jan 27at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 25vs FLA1 − 5L
Jan 23vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 27vs MIN5 − 2W
Feb 25vs COL2 − 4L
Feb 4vs DET4 − 1W
Feb 2vs VAN6 − 2W
Jan 31vs DAL2 − 3L
Jan 29at CAR4 − 5L
Jan 27at FLA4 − 3W
Jan 26at TB0 − 2L
Jan 24at NSH5 − 2W
Jan 21vs PHI5 − 4W