bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Feb 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final CHI 2 – NSH 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0112
NSH1034
Team box
CHI·NSH
23
shots
26
1 of 5
power play
1 of 1
56.8
faceoff %
43.2
15
hits
26
6
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI2522.880
Justus AnnunenNSH2321.913

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 2 · CHI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 41%, NSH 59% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 3.3 – 2.9 CHI
Expected total
6.2
BlackhawksThe matchupPredators
+147Our fair odds−147
2.9Expected goals3.3
−0.43Power rating−0.21
2.7Goals / game3.0
3.2Allowed / game3.5
24.8Shots / game28.6
46.9Faceoff %51.5
17.4Hits / game19.4
22−35Season record26−31
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · NSH chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+14741%————
NSHNashville Predators−14759%————
Spreadabout even
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.4our margin————
NSHNashville Predators−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 16%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 26%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 11%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 13%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 7%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byNSH wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more33%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more23%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·NSH
Feb 4 at CBJ
last game
Feb 5 at WSH
21 days
days of rest
20 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
CHI·NSH
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
2.7
goals / game
3.0
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.5
22−35
season record
26−31
12−19
home record
15−15
10−16
away record
11−16
L1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
24.8
shots / game
28.6
46.9
faceoff %
51.5
17.4
hits / game
19.4
12.3
blocked shots / game
11.8
5.0
takeaways / game
5.3
16.1
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

CHI · NSH · 113 days
Chicago BlackhawksNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 8−2
Jan 10at NSHCHI 3 − 0
Nov 28, 2025at CHINSH 4 − 3
Mar 8, 2025at NSHNSH 3 − 2 OT
Feb 7, 2025at CHICHI 6 − 2
Jan 16, 2025at NSHNSH 3 − 2 SO
Oct 25, 2024at CHINSH 3 − 2
Apr 12, 2024at CHINSH 5 − 1
Jan 2, 2024at NSHNSH 3 − 0
Dec 5, 2023at CHINSH 4 − 3 SO
Nov 18, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 2

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Feb 4at CBJ0 − 4L
Feb 2vs SJ6 − 3W
Jan 30vs CBJ2 − 4L
Jan 29at PIT2 − 6L
Jan 27at MIN3 − 4L
Jan 25vs FLA1 − 5L
Jan 23vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 22at CAR4 − 3W
Jan 19vs WPG2 − 0W
Jan 17vs BOS2 − 5L

NSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Feb 5at WSH2 − 4L
Feb 4vs MIN5 − 6L
Feb 2vs STL6 − 5W
Jan 31at NYI4 − 3W
Jan 29at NJ2 − 3L
Jan 27at BOS2 − 3L
Jan 24vs UTAH2 − 5L
Jan 22vs OTT5 − 3W
Jan 20vs BUF3 − 5L
Jan 17at VGK2 − 7L