bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Lightning

NHL · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 6:30 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final TOR 2 – TB 4
← NHL / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TOR0022
TB0224
Team box
TOR·TB
34
shots
36
1 of 2
power play
0 of 4
54.8
faceoff %
45.2
18
hits
17
17
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brayden PointTB215
Nikita KucherovTB122
Gage GoncalvesTB122
Matthew KniesTOR113
William NylanderTOR024
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anthony StolarzTOR3632.889
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3432.941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
TOR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 3 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 35%, TB 65% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
TB by 1.2
Expected score
TB 4.0 – 2.8 TOR
Expected total
6.7
Maple LeafsThe matchupLightning
+188Our fair odds−188
2.8Expected goals4.0
+0.05Power rating+0.52
3.3Goals / game3.6
3.4Allowed / game2.5
27.3Shots / game28.1
56.3Faceoff %46.9
22.6Hits / game19.4
27−30Season record37−18
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · TB chance
Our model fair34.8%65.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+18835%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−18865%————
SpreadTB by 1.2
TORToronto Maple Leafs+1.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.2 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 2%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 6%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 6%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%
← TOR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more36%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.534%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORAnthony Stolarz G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.44 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.95 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·TB
Feb 3 at EDM
last game
Feb 5 vs FLA
21 days
days of rest
19 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
TOR·TB
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
3.3
goals / game
3.6
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.5
27−30
season record
37−18
16−15
home record
18−9
11−15
away record
19−9
W3
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
8−2
27.3
shots / game
28.1
56.3
faceoff %
46.9
22.6
hits / game
19.4
15.2
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.7
takeaways / game
4.1
16.6
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

TOR · TB · 112 days
Toronto Maple LeafsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 2−8
Dec 8, 2025at TORTOR 2 − 0
Apr 9, 2025at TBTOR 4 − 3 OT
Jan 20, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Nov 30, 2024at TBTOR 5 − 3
Oct 21, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 2
Apr 17, 2024at TBTB 6 − 4
Apr 3, 2024at TORTB 4 − 1
Nov 6, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 5 OT
Oct 21, 2023at TBTOR 4 − 3 OT
Apr 29, 2023at TBTOR 2 − 1 OTpost

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Feb 3at EDM5 − 2W
Feb 2at CGY4 − 2W
Jan 31at VAN3 − 2W
Jan 29at SEA2 − 5L
Jan 27vs BUF4 − 7L
Jan 25vs COL1 − 4L
Jan 23vs VGK3 − 6L
Jan 21vs DET1 − 2L
Jan 19vs MIN3 − 6L
Jan 17at WPG4 − 3W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Feb 5vs FLA6 − 1W
Feb 3vs BUF4 − 3W
Feb 1vs BOS6 − 5W
Jan 29vs WPG4 − 1W
Jan 26vs UTAH2 − 0W
Jan 24at CBJ5 − 8L
Jan 23at CHI2 − 1W
Jan 20vs SJ4 − 1W
Jan 18at DAL4 − 1W
Jan 16at STL2 − 3L