bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ARI 2 – LAD 3
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI101000000251
LAD00000102360
Team box
ARI·LAD
5
hits
6
0
home runs
1
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Will SmithLAD1-4112
Freddie FreemanLAD3-4001
Pavin SmithARI1-4001
Corbin CarrollARI1-3101
Miguel RojasLAD2-2000
Ketel MarteARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo RodriguezARI5.04025
Juan Morillo (L)ARI0.21210
Tyler GlasnowLAD6.04216
Will Klein (W)LAD1.01001
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 42%, LAD 58% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 4.3 ARI
Expected total
9.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupDodgers
+140Our fair odds−140
4.3Expected runs5.3
+0.01Power rating+0.26
3.0Runs / game6.5
6.5Allowed / game3.0
7.0Hits / game7.0
1.00Home runs / game2.00
2.0Walks drawn / game4.0
0−2Season record2−0
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshi33.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+14042%+19833.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14058%−25171.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAD
Mar 27 at LAD
last game
Mar 27 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ARI·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
3.0
runs / game
6.5
6.5
runs allowed / game
3.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.0
hits / game
7.0
1.00
home runs / game
2.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
4.5
4.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.50
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

ARI · LAD · 3 days
Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at LADARI 3 − 0
May 21, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 20, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Sep 23, 2025vs LAD5 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs PHI9 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025vs PHI4 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W
Oct 25, 2025at TOR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at TOR4 − 11L
Oct 17, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W