bayesRatings

Yankees at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 6:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYY 3 – SF 1
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY002010000370
SF001000000190
Team box
NYY·SF
7
hits
9
1
home runs
0
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
8
146
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4111
Ben RiceNYY1-4002
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4000
Cody BellingerNYY2-3100
Matt ChapmanSF1-4001
Rafael DeversSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY4.15123
Jake Bird (W)NYY1.21002
David Bednar (S)NYY1.01011
Tyler Mahle (L)SF4.05215

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · NYY 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, SF 46% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.9 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupGiants
−120Our fair odds+120
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.24Power rating−0.02
5.0Runs / game0.0
0.0Allowed / game5.0
9.0Hits / game2.0
1.00Home runs / game0.00
3.0Walks drawn / game2.0
2−0Season record0−2
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SF chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12054%−13156.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+12046%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySF wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SF
Mar 27 at SF
last game
Mar 27 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NYY·SF
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.0
runs / game
0.0
0.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
2−0
season record
0−2
0−0
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
2.0
1.00
home runs / game
0.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.0
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYY · SF · 3 days
New York YankeesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Mar 27at SFNYY 3 − 0
Mar 25at SFNYY 7 − 0
Apr 13, 2025at NYYSF 5 − 4
Apr 12, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at NYYSF 9 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2024at SFNYY 6 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at NYYNYY 6 − 0
Apr 1, 2023at NYYSF 7 − 5

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 27at SF3 − 0W
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W
Oct 1, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Sep 30, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL3 − 2W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L
Sep 22, 2025vs STL5 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025at LAD3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025at LAD5 − 7L