bayesRatings

Red Sox at Reds

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final BOS 2 – CIN 3
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000200000270
CIN00000300370
Team box
BOS·CIN
7
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
4
7
strikeouts
9
136
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS3-4112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3113
Connor WongBOS2-3000
Sal StewartCIN2-2100
Willson ContrerasBOS1-3100
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly EarlyBOS5.15126
Greg Weissert (L)BOS0.21211
Rhett LowderCIN5.03225
Brock Burke (W)CIN1.11010
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · BOS 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupReds
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.14Power rating+0.03
4.0Runs / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game4.0
10.0Hits / game7.0
1.00Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game5.0
1−1Season record1−1
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10150%−13757.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10150%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CIN
Mar 28 at CIN
last game
Mar 28 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
BOS·CIN
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.0
runs / game
3.0
3.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
1−1
season record
1−1
0−0
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
10.0
hits / game
7.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
5.0
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
12.0
12.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.0
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

BOS · CIN · 4 days
Boston Red SoxCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Mar 28at CINCIN 6 − 5
Mar 26at CINBOS 3 − 0
Jul 2, 2025at BOSCIN 8 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at BOSBOS 13 − 6
Jun 23, 2024at CINBOS 7 − 4
Jun 22, 2024at CINBOS 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jun 1, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 2
May 31, 2023at BOSCIN 5 − 4

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L
Oct 1, 2025at NYY3 − 4L
Sep 30, 2025at NYY3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 27, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 26, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at TOR1 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at TOR7 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 28vs BOS6 − 5W
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Sep 24, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L