bayesRatings

White Sox at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CHW 7 – MIL 9
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW421000000790
MIL200001069110
Team box
CHW·MIL
9
hits
11
3
home runs
2
5
walks
7
12
strikeouts
12
181
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-3115
Gary SanchezMIL2-4112
Christian YelichMIL1-1113
Everson PereiraCHW2-4111
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4211
Luis RengifoMIL1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony KayCHW4.23245
Seranthony Dominguez (L)CHW0.12210
Brandon SproatMIL3.06743
Jake Woodford (W)MIL2.01001
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · CHW 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 33%, MIL 67% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
MIL by 2.1
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.2 CHW
Expected total
8.4
White SoxThe matchupBrewers
+201Our fair odds−201
3.2Expected runs5.2
−0.34Power rating+0.28
1.5Runs / game10.0
10.0Allowed / game1.5
5.5Hits / game12.0
1.50Home runs / game1.00
4.5Walks drawn / game7.5
0−2Season record2−0
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIL chance
Our model fair33.2%66.8%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+20133%+14041.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−20167%−16862.7%———
SpreadMIL by 2.1
CHWChicago White Sox+2.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.1 expected
Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more54%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more43%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIL
Mar 28 at MIL
last game
Mar 28 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
CHW·MIL
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
1.5
runs / game
10.0
10.0
runs allowed / game
1.5
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
5.5
hits / game
12.0
1.50
home runs / game
1.00
4.5
walks drawn / game
7.5
15.5
batter strikeouts / game
6.0
6.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
15.5
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CHW · MIL · 4 days
Chicago White SoxMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 9−1
Mar 28at MILMIL 6 − 1
Mar 26at MILMIL 14 − 2
May 1, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at CHWMIL 6 − 4
Apr 29, 2025at CHWMIL 7 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 3
Jun 1, 2024at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 31, 2024at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 13, 2023at CHWMIL 7 − 3
Aug 12, 2023at CHWMIL 3 − 2

CHW · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L
Sep 23, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 21, 2025vs SD2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs SD3 − 7L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at CHC0 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025at CHC3 − 4L
Oct 6, 2025vs CHC7 − 3W