bayesRatings

Rockies at Marlins

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 12:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final COL 3 – MIA 4
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL300000000360
MIA110000002482
Team box
COL·MIA
6
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
5
11
strikeouts
8
140
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Owen CaissieMIA1-2112
Jordan BeckCOL1-4003
Otto LopezMIA2-4001
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4000
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-3100
Javier SanojaMIA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose QuintanaCOL4.14242
Victor Vodnik (L)COL1.03201
Max MeyerMIA5.05325
Michael Petersen (W)MIA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · COL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, MIA 69% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 5.2 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.0
RockiesThe matchupMarlins
+226Our fair odds−226
3.8Expected runs5.2
−0.81Power rating−0.08
2.0Runs / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game2.0
6.5Hits / game9.0
1.00Home runs / game0.50
1.5Walks drawn / game1.5
0−2Season record2−0
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+22631%+15938.6%———
MIAMiami Marlins−22669%−19165.6%———
SpreadMIA by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 11%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more48%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.82 ERA, 7 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIA
Mar 28 at MIA
last game
Mar 28 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
COL·MIA
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
2.0
runs / game
3.0
3.0
runs allowed / game
2.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
7−3
6.5
hits / game
9.0
1.00
home runs / game
0.50
1.5
walks drawn / game
1.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
5.5
5.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.50
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

COL · MIA · 4 days
Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Mar 28at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Mar 27at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 18, 2025at COLMIA 9 − 7
Sep 17, 2025at COLMIA 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at COLMIA 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at MIACOL 6 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at COLMIA 12 − 8
Aug 28, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 2

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at SEA2 − 9L
Sep 23, 2025at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs LAA3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025vs LAA0 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L
Sep 23, 2025at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at TEX4 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at TEX4 − 3W