bayesRatings

Angels at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAA 7 – HOU 9
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA004200001771
HOU04002003970
Team box
LAA·HOU
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
8
walks
9
13
strikeouts
6
159
pitches thrown
194
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA1-2212
Isaac ParedesHOU2-5102
Jorge SolerLAA1-5103
Christian VazquezHOU1-2102
Christian WalkerHOU1-3102
Jo AdellLAA2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack KochanowiczLAA4.04553
Drew Pomeranz (L)LAA1.02320
Tatsuya ImaiHOU2.23444
AJ Blubaugh (W)HOU2.00002
Bryan King (S)HOU0.21002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · LAA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, HOU 58% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
HOU by 1.0
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.7
AngelsThe matchupAstros
+138Our fair odds−138
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.19Power rating+0.04
6.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game6.0
8.7Hits / game8.0
2.67Home runs / game0.33
6.7Walks drawn / game4.7
2−1Season record1−2
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13842%+14640.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−13858%−17563.6%———
SpreadHOU by 1.0
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more45%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 15.32 ERA, 4 Kstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·HOU
Mar 28 at HOU
last game
Mar 28 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAA·HOU
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
6.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
6.0
2−1
season record
1−2
0−0
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.0
2.67
home runs / game
0.33
6.7
walks drawn / game
4.7
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
10.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.0
1.67
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

LAA · HOU · 4 days
Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at HOULAA 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at HOULAA 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 28at HOU9 − 11L
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs KC3 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs KC4 − 8L
Sep 21, 2025at COL1 − 3L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at LAA3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at ATH11 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at ATH0 − 6L
Sep 23, 2025at ATH1 − 5L
Sep 21, 2025vs SEA3 − 7L