bayesRatings

Pirates at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PIT 4 – NYM 3
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PIT1010000002471
NYM0100100001391
Team box
PIT·NYM
7
hits
9
1
home runs
0
8
walks
2
12
strikeouts
16
164
pitches thrown
175
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-5002
Brandon LowePIT2-3111
Juan SotoNYM2-5002
Francisco LindorNYM2-4100
Luis Robert Jr.NYM2-3100
Brett BatyNYM2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT4.16208
Dennis Santana (W)PIT1.00001
Jose Urquidy (S)PIT1.01010
Nolan McLeanNYM5.04228
Richard Lovelady (L)NYM1.02121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
PIT +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 0 · PIT 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, NYM 56% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
NYM by 0.8
Expected score
NYM 4.8 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
8.7
PiratesThe matchupMets
+130Our fair odds−130
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.08
4.5Runs / game7.5
7.5Allowed / game4.5
11.0Hits / game8.5
1.50Home runs / game1.50
2.0Walks drawn / game7.0
0−2Season record2−0
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYM chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13044%+15938.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−13056%−19165.6%———
SpreadNYM by 0.8
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.8 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 11%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYM
Mar 28 at NYM
last game
Mar 28 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
PIT·NYM
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.5
runs / game
7.5
7.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
11.0
hits / game
8.5
1.50
home runs / game
1.50
2.0
walks drawn / game
7.0
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

PIT · NYM · 4 days
Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Mar 28at NYMNYM 4 − 2
Mar 26at NYMNYM 11 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at PITPIT 12 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 1
May 14, 2025at NYMPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2024at PITPIT 8 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at PITNYM 3 − 2

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Mar 28at NYM2 − 4L
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at CIN4 − 2W
Sep 21, 2025vs ATH11 − 0W
Sep 20, 2025vs ATH2 − 0W

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L
Sep 23, 2025at CHC9 − 7W
Sep 21, 2025vs WSH2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs WSH3 − 5L