bayesRatings

Nationals at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final WSH 6 – CHC 3
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH3000010206112
CHC000200010340
Team box
WSH·CHC
11
hits
4
2
home runs
3
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
133
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey WiemerWSH3-3113
Alex BregmanCHC2-4222
Keibert RuizWSH1-3113
Ian HappCHC1-3111
Brady HouseWSH2-5100
Daylen LileWSH2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Irvin (W)WSH5.03217
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.00000
Shota Imanaga (L)CHC5.06427

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 38%, CHC 62% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
CHC by 1.9
Expected score
CHC 5.7 – 3.8 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupCubs
+166Our fair odds−166
3.8Expected runs5.7
−0.27Power rating+0.15
6.0Runs / game7.0
7.0Allowed / game6.0
7.5Hits / game9.0
2.00Home runs / game1.00
3.0Walks drawn / game6.0
1−1Season record1−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair37.6%62.4%
Kalshi31.5%72.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+16638%+21831.5%———
CHCChicago Cubs−16662%−26372.4%———
SpreadCHC by 1.9
WSHWashington Nationals+1.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.9 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more53%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more42%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 10.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CHC
Mar 28 at CHC
last game
Mar 28 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
WSH·CHC
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
6.0
runs / game
7.0
7.0
runs allowed / game
6.0
1−1
season record
1−1
0−0
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
9.0
2.00
home runs / game
1.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
6.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
1.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

WSH · CHC · 4 days
Washington NationalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Mar 28at CHCCHC 10 − 2
Mar 26at CHCWSH 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at CHCWSH 2 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at WSHCHC 7 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at WSHCHC 8 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Sep 21, 2024at CHCWSH 5 − 1

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22, 2025at ATL5 − 11L
Sep 21, 2025at NYM3 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at NYM5 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 28vs WSH10 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L
Oct 2, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Oct 1, 2025vs SD0 − 3L
Sep 30, 2025vs SD3 − 1W