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Warriors at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 21 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final GS 119 – LAL 109
← NBA / Oct 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS28273529119
LAL22322530109
Team box
GS·LAL
38-78
field goals
42-77
17-40
3-pointers
8-32
26-29
free throws
17-28
40
rebounds
39
29
assists
23
19
turnovers
20
36
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL4143129
Jimmy Butler IIIGS353154
Austin ReavesLAL362659
Stephen CurryGS322314
Jonathan KumingaGS331796
Buddy HieldGS221710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +17
GS +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 2 · GS 17lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 47%, LAL 53% · Updated Oct 21, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 1.3
Expected score
LAL 112.1 – 110.8 GS
Expected total
222.8
WarriorsThe matchupLakers
+113Our fair odds−113
110.8Expected points112.1
+0.37Power rating+0.26
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 104−6
Alex Toohey · De'Anthony Melton
Moses MoodyOut (3 each)Adou Thiero · LeBron James
Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · LAL chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+11347%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−11353%————
SpreadLAL by 1.3
GSGolden State Warriors+1.3our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.8
Over222.8our total————
Under222.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 1.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%
← GS wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more44%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more30%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GGabe Vincentstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·LAL
May 14, 2025 at MIN
last game
Apr 30, 2025 vs MIN
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 21, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; patellofemoral painOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · left soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · left ankle; sprainProbable
GSJonathan Kuminga · right ankle; inflammationProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALMaxi Kleber · left oblique; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
GS·LAL
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
4−6

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 5−5
Apr 3, 2025at LALGS 123 − 116
Feb 6, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 112
Jan 25, 2025at GSLAL 118 − 108
Dec 25, 2024at GSLAL 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2024at LALGS 134 − 120
Mar 16, 2024at LALGS 128 − 121
Feb 22, 2024at GSGS 128 − 110
Jan 27, 2024at GSLAL 145 − 144
May 12, 2023at LALLAL 122 − 101post
May 10, 2023at GSGS 121 − 106post

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W
May 4, 2025at HOU103 − 89W
May 2, 2025vs HOU107 − 115L
Apr 30, 2025at HOU116 − 131L
Apr 28, 2025vs HOU109 − 106W
Apr 26, 2025vs HOU104 − 93W

LAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L
Apr 27, 2025at MIN113 − 116L
Apr 25, 2025at MIN104 − 116L
Apr 22, 2025vs MIN94 − 85W
Apr 19, 2025vs MIN95 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025at POR81 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs HOU140 − 109W
Apr 9, 2025at DAL112 − 97W
Apr 8, 2025at OKC120 − 136L
Apr 6, 2025at OKC126 − 99W