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Nuggets at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Oct 23 · 9:17 PM CT · Chase Center · Final DEN 131 – GS 137
← NBA / Oct 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DEN3139242611131
GS2734332617137
Team box
DEN·GS
51-95
field goals
50-99
16-40
3-pointers
18-47
13-14
free throws
19-25
43
rebounds
43
32
assists
33
13
turnovers
9
56
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Aaron GordonDEN395082
Stephen CurryGS374267
Jamal MurrayDEN4025310
Nikola JokicDEN41211310
Jimmy Butler IIIGS392156
Jonathan KumingaGS361453

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +14
DEN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: GS 10 · DEN 14lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 48%, GS 52% · Updated Oct 23, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 1.8
Expected score
GS 115.0 – 113.2 DEN
Expected total
228.2
NuggetsThe matchupWarriors
+108Our fair odds−108
113.2Expected points115.0
+0.53Power rating+0.37
0−0Season record1−0
5−5Last 104−6
—OutAlex Toohey · De'Anthony Melton
Moses Moody

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · GS chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+10848%————
GSGolden State Warriors−10852%————
SpreadGS by 1.8
DENDenver Nuggets+1.8our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 1.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more45%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more31%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·GS
May 18, 2025 at OKC
last game
Oct 21, 2025 at LAL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
1
season opener, road
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 23, 5:00 PM ET
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; patellofemoral painOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · left soleus; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
DEN·GS
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
0−0
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
—
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6

Rating Trend

DEN · GS · 3 days
Denver NuggetsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 1−9
Apr 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 104
Mar 17, 2025at GSDEN 114 − 105
Dec 3, 2024at DENDEN 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2024at GSDEN 119 − 103
Jan 4, 2024at GSDEN 130 − 127
Dec 25, 2023at DENDEN 120 − 114
Nov 8, 2023at DENDEN 108 − 105
Apr 2, 2023at DENDEN 112 − 110
Feb 2, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 117
Oct 21, 2022at GSDEN 128 − 123

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L
May 9, 2025vs OKC113 − 104W
May 7, 2025at OKC106 − 149L
May 5, 2025at OKC121 − 119W
May 3, 2025vs LAC120 − 101W
May 1, 2025at LAC105 − 111L
Apr 29, 2025vs LAC131 − 115W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W
May 4, 2025at HOU103 − 89W
May 2, 2025vs HOU107 − 115L
Apr 30, 2025at HOU116 − 131L
Apr 28, 2025vs HOU109 − 106W