bayesRatings

Heat at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final MIA 146 – MEM 114
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA44422832146
MEM25222938114
Team box
MIA·MEM
55-102
field goals
38-95
19-40
3-pointers
13-45
17-22
free throws
25-28
57
rebounds
41
34
assists
29
20
turnovers
20
72
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA282454
Nikola JovicMIA272064
Kel'el WareMIA231991
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM211931
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA2717106
Cedric CowardMEM221622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +45
MIA +45
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 4 · MIA 45lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 38%, MEM 62% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 4.1
Expected score
MEM 115.5 – 111.4 MIA
Expected total
226.9
HeatThe matchupGrizzlies
+165Our fair odds−165
111.4Expected points115.5
−0.14Power rating+0.14
121.0Points / game128.0
125.0Allowed / game122.0
48.0FG%51.0
34.03P%30.0
47.0Rebounds / game39.0
0−1Season record1−0
2−8Last 104−6
Kasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOutBrandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Vince Williams Jr.
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MEM chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+16538%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−16562%————
SpreadMEM by 4.1
MIAMiami Heat+4.1our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.9
Over226.9our total————
Under226.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.1 expected
Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%
← MIA wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more51%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more36%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.531%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MEM
Oct 22, 2025 at ORL
last game
Oct 22, 2025 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · right heel; sorenessOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJa Morant · left ankle; sorenessQuestionable
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
MIA·MEM
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
121.0
points / game
128.0
125.0
points allowed / game
122.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
48.0
FG%
51.0
34.0
3P%
30.0
47.0
rebounds / game
39.0
26.0
assists / game
20.0
19.0
turnovers / game
17.0
54.0
points in paint / game
56.0

Rating Trend

MIA · MEM · 4 days
Miami HeatMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 5−3
Apr 3, 2025at MIAMEM 110 − 108
Mar 15, 2025at MEMMEM 125 − 91
Jan 24, 2024at MIAMEM 105 − 96
Nov 8, 2023at MEMMIA 108 − 102
Mar 15, 2023at MIAMIA 138 − 119
Dec 5, 2022at MEMMEM 101 − 93
Dec 6, 2021at MIAMEM 105 − 90
Oct 30, 2021at MEMMIA 129 − 103

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L
Apr 11, 2025at NO153 − 104W
Apr 9, 2025at CHI111 − 119L
Apr 7, 2025vs PHI117 − 105W
Apr 5, 2025vs MIL115 − 121L

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L
Apr 22, 2025at OKC99 − 118L
Apr 20, 2025at OKC80 − 131L
Apr 13, 2025vs DAL132 − 97W
Apr 11, 2025at DEN109 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs MIN125 − 141L
Apr 8, 2025at CHA124 − 100W
Apr 5, 2025at DET109 − 103W