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Bucks at Raptors

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 5:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final MIL 122 – TOR 116
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL27253436122
TOR19353230116
Team box
MIL·TOR
47-90
field goals
42-85
14-40
3-pointers
11-27
14-25
free throws
21-32
51
rebounds
41
25
assists
25
19
turnovers
16
54
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3831207
Brandon IngramTOR372963
Cole AnthonyMIL272347
RJ BarrettTOR332062
Gary Trent Jr.MIL292024
Immanuel QuickleyTOR371978

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +10
MIL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 7 · MIL 10lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 65%, TOR 35% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 5.4
Expected score
MIL 117.4 – 112.0 TOR
Expected total
229.3
BucksThe matchupRaptors
−187Our fair odds+187
117.4Expected points112.0
+0.28Power rating−0.59
133.0Points / game138.0
120.0Allowed / game118.0
51.0FG%57.0
41.03P%24.0
46.0Rebounds / game54.0
1−0Season record1−0
6−4Last 105−5
Kevin Porter Jr.Out (1 each)Collin Murray-Boyles

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair65.2%34.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−18765%————
TORToronto Raptors+18735%————
SpreadMIL by 5.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks−5.4our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.3
Over229.3our total————
Under229.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 5.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byTOR wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more55%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more39%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·TOR
Oct 22, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Oct 22, 2025 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILKevin Porter Jr. · left ankle; sprainOut
Toronto Raptors
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · right forearm; muscle strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
MIL·TOR
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
133.0
points / game
138.0
120.0
points allowed / game
118.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
51.0
FG%
57.0
41.0
3P%
24.0
46.0
rebounds / game
54.0
31.0
assists / game
36.0
8.0
turnovers / game
19.0
60.0
points in paint / game
86.0

Rating Trend

MIL · TOR · 4 days
Milwaukee BucksToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jan 17, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 112
Jan 6, 2025at TORMIL 128 − 104
Nov 12, 2024at MILMIL 99 − 85
Apr 5, 2024at MILTOR 117 − 111
Nov 15, 2023at TORMIL 128 − 112
Nov 1, 2023at TORTOR 130 − 111
Apr 9, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 105
Mar 19, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 111
Jan 17, 2023at MILMIL 130 − 122
Jan 4, 2023at TORMIL 104 − 101

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W
Apr 22, 2025at IND115 − 123L
Apr 19, 2025at IND98 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025vs DET140 − 133W
Apr 11, 2025at DET125 − 119W
Apr 10, 2025vs NO136 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025vs MIN110 − 103W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W
Apr 6, 2025at BKN120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025vs DET105 − 117L
Apr 3, 2025vs POR103 − 112L
Apr 1, 2025at CHI118 − 137L
Mar 30, 2025at PHI127 − 109W
Mar 28, 2025vs CHA108 − 97W