bayesRatings

Spurs at Pelicans

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final SA 120 – NO 116
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
SA3027252513120
NO273122279116
Team box
SA·NO
45-98
field goals
42-97
13-43
3-pointers
10-32
17-26
free throws
22-29
59
rebounds
45
25
assists
24
19
turnovers
15
64
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3229112
Zion WilliamsonNO3727107
Trey Murphy IIINO4624105
Devin VassellSA402351
Jordan PooleNO412145
Stephon CastleSA331666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +9
SA +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: NO 8 · SA 9lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 52%, NO 48% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 2.1
Expected score
SA 117.3 – 115.2 NO
Expected total
232.6
SpursThe matchupPelicans
−107Our fair odds+107
117.3Expected points115.2
−0.39Power rating−0.70
125.0Points / game122.0
92.0Allowed / game128.0
57.0FG%46.0
40.03P%37.0
50.0Rebounds / game47.0
1−0Season record0−1
4−6Last 101−9
De'Aaron Fox · Jeremy Sochan
Kelly Olynyk · Lindy Waters IIIOutDejounte Murray · Jaden Springer
Kevon Looney

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · NO chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−10752%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10748%————
SpreadSA by 2.1
SASan Antonio Spurs−2.1our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 2.1 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byNO wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more46%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more31%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJordan Poolestarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·NO
Oct 22, 2025 at DAL
last game
Oct 22, 2025 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainOut
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryOut
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOJaden Springer · not with teamOut
NOKevon Looney · left knee; sprainOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; spasmsQuestionable
NOYves Missi · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
SA·NO
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.70
125.0
points / game
122.0
92.0
points allowed / game
128.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
1−9
57.0
FG%
46.0
40.0
3P%
37.0
50.0
rebounds / game
47.0
24.0
assists / game
20.0
15.0
turnovers / game
15.0
68.0
points in paint / game
66.0

Rating Trend

SA · NO · 4 days
San Antonio SpursNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 7−3
Mar 15, 2025at SASA 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2025at NONO 109 − 103
Feb 23, 2025at NONO 114 − 96
Dec 8, 2024at SASA 121 − 116
Apr 5, 2024at NOSA 111 − 109
Feb 2, 2024at SANO 114 − 113
Dec 17, 2023at SANO 146 − 110
Dec 1, 2023at NONO 121 − 106
Mar 21, 2023at NONO 119 − 84
Dec 22, 2022at NONO 126 − 117

SA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L
Apr 6, 2025at POR109 − 120L
Apr 4, 2025vs CLE113 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025at DEN113 − 106W
Apr 1, 2025vs ORL105 − 116L
Mar 30, 2025vs GS106 − 148L

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L
Apr 10, 2025at MIL111 − 136L
Apr 8, 2025at BKN114 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs MIL107 − 111L
Apr 4, 2025at LAL108 − 124L
Apr 2, 2025at LAC98 − 114L
Mar 30, 2025vs CHA98 − 94W
Mar 28, 2025vs GS95 − 111L