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Commanders at Packers

NFL · Thursday, Sep 11 · 7:15 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final WSH 18 – GB 27
← NFL / Sep 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH0301518
GB7731027
Team box
WSH·GB
230
total yards
404
179
passing yards
269
51
rushing yards
135
15
first downs
22
5-16
third downs
5-12
0
turnovers
0
27:34
time of possession
32:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH24/4220020
Jordan LoveGB19/3129220
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Austin EkelerWSH8170
Josh JacobsGB23841
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zach ErtzWSH6641
Tucker KraftGB61241

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +17
WSH +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 17 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 37%, GB 63% · Updated Sep 11, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 6.2
Expected score
GB 28.0 – 21.8 WSH
Expected total
49.8
CommandersThe matchupPackers
+167Our fair odds−167
21.8Expected points28.0
+0.29Power rating+0.55
21.0Points / game27.0
6.0Allowed / game13.0
432Total yards / game266
6.6Yards / play5.7
212Passing yards / game188
1−0Season record1−0
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · GB chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+16737%————
GBGreen Bay Packers−16763%————
SpreadGB by 6.2
WSHWashington Commanders+6.2our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.8
Over49.8our total————
Under49.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 6.2 expected
Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 44 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 45 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 46 points: <1%
← WSH wins byGB wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more60%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more45%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.8 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.567%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 64% completions, 262 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 64% completions, 156 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·GB
Sep 7, 2025 vs NYG
last game
Sep 7, 2025 vs DET
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
WSH·GB
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.55
21.0
points / game
27.0
6.0
points allowed / game
13.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
432
total yards / game
266
6.6
yards / play
5.7
212
passing yards / game
188
220
rushing yards / game
78
25.0
first downs / game
14.0
0.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · GB 1−1
Oct 23, 2022at WSHWSH 23 − 21
Oct 24, 2021at GBGB 24 − 10

WSH · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs PHI36 − 33W
Dec 15, 2024at NO20 − 19W
Dec 1, 2024vs TEN42 − 19W
Nov 24, 2024vs DAL26 − 34L

GB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W
Dec 15, 2024at SEA30 − 13W
Dec 5, 2024at DET31 − 34L
Nov 28, 2024vs MIA30 − 17W
Nov 24, 2024vs SF38 − 10W
Nov 17, 2024at CHI20 − 19W