bayesRatings

Falcons at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 7:20 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final ATL 22 – MIN 6
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL6331022
MIN06006
Team box
ATL·MIN
326
total yards
198
108
passing yards
120
218
rushing yards
78
19
first downs
10
6-15
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
4
36:32
time of possession
23:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL13/2113500
J.J. McCarthyMIN11/2115802
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL221430
Jordan MasonMIN9300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL3490
Justin JeffersonMIN3810

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
ATL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 0 · ATL 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 29%, MIN 71% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 8.7
Expected score
MIN 27.5 – 18.8 ATL
Expected total
46.3
FalconsThe matchupVikings
+245Our fair odds−245
18.8Expected points27.5
−0.26Power rating+0.43
20.0Points / game27.0
23.0Allowed / game24.0
358Total yards / game254
5.0Yards / play5.2
289Passing yards / game134
0−1Season record1−0
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair29.0%71.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+24529%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−24571%————
SpreadMIN by 8.7
ATLAtlanta Falcons+8.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−8.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.3
Over46.3our total————
Under46.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 8.7 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more67%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more52%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.3 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 58% completions, 278 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 1 game: 65% completions, 143 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIN
Sep 7, 2025 vs TB
last game
Sep 8, 2025 at CHI
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
ATL·MIN
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
20.0
points / game
27.0
23.0
points allowed / game
24.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
8−2
358
total yards / game
254
5.0
yards / play
5.2
289
passing yards / game
134
69
rushing yards / game
120
23.0
first downs / game
14.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

ATL · MIN · 2 days
Atlanta FalconsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIN 2−0
Dec 8, 2024at MINMIN 42 − 21
Nov 5, 2023at ATLMIN 31 − 28

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L
Dec 1, 2024vs LAC13 − 17L
Nov 17, 2024at DEN6 − 38L
Nov 10, 2024at NO17 − 20L
Nov 3, 2024vs DAL27 − 21W

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W
Dec 8, 2024vs ATL42 − 21W
Dec 1, 2024vs ARI23 − 22W
Nov 24, 2024at CHI30 − 27W
Nov 17, 2024at TEN23 − 13W