bayesRatings

Bills at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final BUF 30 – NYJ 10
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF10103730
NYJ030710
Team box
BUF·NYJ
403
total yards
154
179
passing yards
54
224
rushing yards
100
25
first downs
11
5-14
third downs
0-11
0
turnovers
1
38:21
time of possession
21:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF14/2514800
Tyrod TaylorNYJ7/115610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF211322
Justin FieldsNYJ5490
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Joshua PalmerBUF2470
Garrett WilsonNYJ4500

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +27
BUF +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 0 · BUF 27lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 70%, NYJ 30% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 9.1
Expected score
BUF 32.1 – 23.0 NYJ
Expected total
55.1
BillsThe matchupJets
−231Our fair odds+231
32.1Expected points23.0
+0.78Power rating−0.46
41.0Points / game32.0
40.0Allowed / game34.0
497Total yards / game394
6.4Yards / play6.4
389Passing yards / game212
1−0Season record0−1
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair69.8%30.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−23170%————
NYJNew York Jets+23130%————
SpreadBUF by 9.1
BUFBuffalo Bills−9.1our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 55.1
Over55.1our total————
Under55.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 9.1 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 7%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 1%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byNYJ wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more71%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more55%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.1 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.547%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 70% completions, 253 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
NYJTyrod Taylor · last 3 games: 74% completions, 139 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·NYJ
Sep 7, 2025 vs BAL
last game
Sep 7, 2025 vs PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
BUF·NYJ
+0.78
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
41.0
points / game
32.0
40.0
points allowed / game
34.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
497
total yards / game
394
6.4
yards / play
6.4
389
passing yards / game
212
108
rushing yards / game
182
29.0
first downs / game
23.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

BUF · NYJ · 2 days
Buffalo BillsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NYJ 2−6
Dec 29, 2024at BUFBUF 40 − 14
Oct 14, 2024at NYJBUF 23 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at BUFBUF 32 − 6
Sep 11, 2023at NYJNYJ 22 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at BUFBUF 20 − 12
Nov 6, 2022at NYJNYJ 20 − 17
Jan 9, 2022at BUFBUF 27 − 10
Nov 14, 2021at NYJBUF 45 − 17

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024vs NE24 − 21W
Dec 15, 2024at DET48 − 42W
Dec 8, 2024at LAR42 − 44L
Dec 1, 2024vs SF35 − 10W

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L
Dec 1, 2024vs SEA21 − 26L
Nov 17, 2024vs IND27 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at ARI6 − 31L
Oct 31, 2024vs HOU21 − 13W