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Panthers at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final CAR 22 – ARI 27
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR3061322
ARI10107027
Team box
CAR·ARI
352
total yards
293
303
passing yards
211
49
rushing yards
82
26
first downs
16
5-15
third downs
3-9
2
turnovers
1
33:15
time of possession
26:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR35/5532831
Kyler MurrayARI17/2522011
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chuba HubbardCAR10380
James ConnerARI11341
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR61000
Trey McBrideARI6780

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +24
CAR +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 24 · CAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 24%, ARI 76% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 13.8
Expected score
ARI 30.3 – 16.5 CAR
Expected total
46.8
PanthersThe matchupCardinals
+320Our fair odds−320
16.5Expected points30.3
−0.96Power rating+0.03
10.0Points / game20.0
26.0Allowed / game13.0
255Total yards / game276
4.2Yards / play4.5
142Passing yards / game130
0−1Season record1−0
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · ARI chance
Our model fair23.8%76.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+32024%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−32076%————
SpreadARI by 13.8
CARCarolina Panthers+13.8our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals−13.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 13.8 expected
Carolina Panthers by 49 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 48 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 47 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 46 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 6%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 49 points: <1%
← CAR wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more79%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more65%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more57%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 60% completions, 203 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIKyler Murray · last 3 games: 71% completions, 242 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·ARI
Sep 7, 2025 at JAX
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CAR·ARI
−0.96
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
10.0
points / game
20.0
26.0
points allowed / game
13.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
255
total yards / game
276
4.2
yards / play
4.5
142
passing yards / game
130
113
rushing yards / game
146
15.0
first downs / game
19.0
3.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

CAR · ARI · 2 days
Carolina PanthersArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · ARI 1−2
Dec 22, 2024at CARCAR 36 − 30
Oct 2, 2022at CARARI 26 − 16
Nov 14, 2021at ARICAR 34 − 10

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L
Dec 1, 2024vs TB23 − 26L
Nov 24, 2024vs KC27 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYG20 − 17W
Nov 3, 2024vs NO23 − 22W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024at MIN22 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024at SEA6 − 16L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYJ31 − 6W
Nov 3, 2024vs CHI29 − 9W