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Bears at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final CHI 21 – DET 52
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI770721
DET1414101452
Team box
CHI·DET
339
total yards
511
205
passing yards
334
134
rushing yards
177
19
first downs
25
7-13
third downs
4-10
2
turnovers
0
29:40
time of possession
30:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI19/3020721
Jared GoffDET23/2833450
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI12631
Jahmyr GibbsDET12941
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rome OdunzeCHI71282
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET91153

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +31
CHI +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 31 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 23%, DET 77% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 13.7
Expected score
DET 31.7 – 18.0 CHI
Expected total
49.7
BearsThe matchupLions
+336Our fair odds−336
18.0Expected points31.7
−0.36Power rating+0.69
24.0Points / game13.0
27.0Allowed / game27.0
317Total yards / game246
5.0Yards / play3.8
198Passing yards / game200
0−1Season record0−1
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · DET chance
Our model fair23.0%77.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+33623%————
DETDetroit Lions−33677%————
SpreadDET by 13.7
CHIChicago Bears+13.7our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−13.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.7
Over49.7our total————
Under49.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 13.7 expected
Chicago Bears by 49 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 1%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 48 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 49 points: <1%
← CHI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more79%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more65%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more57%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.7 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.567%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.531%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 63% completions, 160 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 72% completions, 256 yds/game, 3 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·DET
Sep 8, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at GB
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CHI·DET
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.69
24.0
points / game
13.0
27.0
points allowed / game
27.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
7−3
317
total yards / game
246
5.0
yards / play
3.8
198
passing yards / game
200
119
rushing yards / game
46
20.0
first downs / game
16.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

CHI · DET · 2 days
Chicago BearsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 5−3
Dec 22, 2024at CHIDET 34 − 17
Nov 28, 2024at DETDET 23 − 20
Dec 10, 2023at CHICHI 28 − 13
Nov 19, 2023at DETDET 31 − 26
Jan 1, 2023at DETDET 41 − 10
Nov 13, 2022at CHIDET 31 − 30
Nov 25, 2021at DETCHI 16 − 14
Oct 3, 2021at CHICHI 24 − 14

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L
Nov 28, 2024at DET20 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024vs MIN27 − 30L
Nov 17, 2024vs GB19 − 20L
Nov 10, 2024vs NE3 − 19L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L
Dec 5, 2024vs GB34 − 31W
Nov 28, 2024vs CHI23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at IND24 − 6W
Nov 17, 2024vs JAX52 − 6W