bayesRatings

Browns at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final CLE 17 – BAL 41
← NFL / Sep 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE037717
BAL37102141
Team box
CLE·BAL
323
total yards
242
208
passing yards
197
115
rushing yards
45
17
first downs
14
7-18
third downs
3-12
2
turnovers
0
31:49
time of possession
28:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe FlaccoCLE25/4519911
Lamar JacksonBAL19/2922540
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE10610
Derrick HenryBAL11230
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jerry JeudyCLE4510
Zay FlowersBAL7750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +31
CLE +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 31 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 18%, BAL 82% · Updated Sep 14, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 18.4
Expected score
BAL 33.5 – 15.1 CLE
Expected total
48.6
BrownsThe matchupRavens
+442Our fair odds−442
15.1Expected points33.5
−0.66Power rating+0.72
16.0Points / game40.0
17.0Allowed / game41.0
327Total yards / game432
4.6Yards / play8.6
278Passing yards / game194
0−1Season record0−1
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · BAL chance
Our model fair18.4%81.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+44218%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−44282%————
SpreadBAL by 18.4
CLECleveland Browns+18.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−18.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.6
Over48.6our total————
Under48.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 18.4 expected
Cleveland Browns by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 46 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 47 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 48 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 49 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 50 points: <1%
← CLE wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more89%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more79%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more72%
Within 3 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.6 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 65% completions, 295 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 74% completions, 213 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·BAL
Sep 7, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Sep 7, 2025 at BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CLE·BAL
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
16.0
points / game
40.0
17.0
points allowed / game
41.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−1
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
6−4
327
total yards / game
432
4.6
yards / play
8.6
278
passing yards / game
194
49
rushing yards / game
238
22.0
first downs / game
19.0
2.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

CLE · BAL · 2 days
Cleveland BrownsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BAL 4−4
Jan 4, 2025at BALBAL 35 − 10
Oct 27, 2024at CLECLE 29 − 24
Nov 12, 2023at BALCLE 33 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at CLEBAL 28 − 3
Dec 17, 2022at CLECLE 13 − 3
Oct 23, 2022at BALBAL 23 − 20
Dec 12, 2021at CLECLE 24 − 22
Nov 28, 2021at BALBAL 16 − 10

CLE · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L
Dec 2, 2024at DEN32 − 41L
Nov 21, 2024vs PIT24 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024at NO14 − 35L
Nov 3, 2024vs LAC10 − 27L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at NYG35 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024vs PHI19 − 24L
Nov 25, 2024at LAC30 − 23W
Nov 17, 2024at PIT16 − 18L